| Greg Guenthner coming to you from Baltimore, MD...  I woke up early to go for a run down Ocean Avenue. The sun wasn’t due to rise for a couple of hours (I’m stuck on East Coast time). The streets were mostly empty-- a small group of homeless drifters and a construction crew were the only other souls awake. But the smell of marijuana hung heavy in the air by Tongva Park. If you didn’t know any better, you would have thought a reckless Telsa driver had just mowed down a family of skunks. The citizens of California finally voted to legalize recreational marijuana last month. But pot’s no big deal in laid-back SoCal. A farcical medical marijuana program has been around forever here in the Golden State. For years, you could visit your local quack with all sorts of imagined ailments and snag a “green card” that would give you access to the dispensary of your choosing. But while pot is nothing new to Californians, legal pot is a very new concept to the markets. It’s early. But the numbers are impressive. Legal marijuana could generate $1 billion a year in taxes alone, according to some estimates. In California, advocates have pushed to have this money go to substance abuse education and prevention. Incentives like these are a huge help in pushing through legalization legislation… The 2016 election season officially opened the floodgates. The wave of legalization has crashed over the West Coast. California, Oregon, Nevada and Washington have all officially legalized recreational marijuana use. Back east, Massachusetts and Maine join the ranks of the high flyers. Over the next couple of years, we’re guaranteed to see a lot more green on this map:  There’s a lot of money to be made in the marijuana business, as any small-time drug dealer has know for years. The trick is figuring out how the heck to invest in a brand new industry as legal weed starts to spread across the country. Already dozens of tiny marijuana firms have begun skyrocketing by 100%, 300%, 500% and higher. “Don’t Touch the Plant” There are many different types of legal weed entrepreneurs. They make and design packaging, manage dispensaries, and even run weed-based social networks. But the most important distinction in these businesses boils down to who touches the plant – and who doesn’t. Those who touch the plant—the growers and distributors—are naturally assuming the most risk. And since marijuana remains illegal at the federal level, investors prefer the companies that don’t touch the plant. Of course, the weed industry is a tricky one. It’s highly regulated. And they’re now dealing with the added uncertainty of how Trump’s administration will handle things at the federal level… But the industry insiders told us that they’re not going away—and that their businesses are just getting stronger. Here’s how: - Well over half the country is in support of legalization. About 60% of swing states are leaning in favor of legalization.
- Pound for pound, dollar for dollar, cannabis does more for local jobs than any other regulated substance. You can’t cross state lines. For instance, legal weed sold in Colorado must be grown in Colorado by people who live there. You can’t outsource these jobs…
- As these businesses mature, they will split into recreational and medical focuses. Recreational marijuana will consist of consumer-driven lifestyle brands while medical companies will develop new products targeting treatments and health benefits of the plant and its chemicals.
The marijuana business leaders agreed that despite the hurdles, we’re going to see more entrepreneurs getting their companies listed on major exchanges. And full legalization on a federal level will happen in just five to seven years. The takeaway for us as investors is simple… It’s time to start taking the pot business seriously. Sincerely,
Greg Guenthner |