Timing the Lows in H2O InnovThe fundamentals are better than when the UP purchase was announced mid-summer, because the optimistic scenarios foreseen then are now substantiated as proven fact. The positive impact of these changes is already in evidence, but the market seems to be just plain stupid, seeing only the 1x negative EPS of the Q1 as some kind of reversal from the consistent and positive track record the company has achieved consistently oover the years.
The one knock on this company is that is unlikely to ever give you a triple or even a double in a short time. But it is also unlikely to ever give you less than buying at a temporary low and holding for significantly more. Repeat: there are no reasoable expectations for this this company to actually lose value.
It seem to bne that with the recent moves the potenta to build value and grow the company faster is continually improving... Compared to less than a year ago we now see a comapny with a miuchy greater likelihood to produce larger positive earnings in the nearer future, and no reason to expect that trend to slow. If anything, it ought to increase. Excellence performance with a world-class reputation. What's not to like?
So IMO any valuation under $2/share is a steal.The brief $2.50 was higher than I expected at the time, but lower than where the SP should be in 2-3 months after the Q2 numbers sink in. Since the company seems to be traded in slow-mo, the actual gains may take longer to attain that level, but that means you nmighht be able to buy more at $2.10 or $2.25 before we reach $2.50 again.
Between now and mid-February, who knows? $1.60 is crazy low, and $1.90 still a sdecent entry price, but you might be able to buy under $1.85 for most trading days for the next two months, in the absence of major positive news. Are you getting why I don't trade mid-range to the "maybe lower?" entry points any more?
Optimistically, $2.25 should be the new bargain price in 4-6 months time, $2.50 the norm, and we might tickle the underside of $3 before the end of May.
Those of you who prefer to trade the 20-cent cycles, good luck timing it right. I just buy what I can when I can a little above the lows of the previous couple of weeks and count myself lucky if they they fill. After that, I don't care how low they go onme day or the next, because I am sure they will not stay there.
Al of this is to say that with HEO today at the same SP as 30-June, how can anyone seeking solid value as a long hesitate to buy, buy, buy??? This company has no downside. It's like buying TD at 1/35th the price.
GLTAL CYD