RE:RE:RE:RE:Late SP DropSome groups may want to keep the SP low to make the offer attractive. Keeping the price low in this period is not difficult, for the following reasons:
- low PoG, even though ICG has the fundamentals for it to weather this climate (it has the goods, it has the cash, and it has enough support from high networth investors and institutions...they will not let their shares go if the price is not right, since they have the sustaining power to wait, even to buy more shares).
- tax loss season, normally people would start in November, but some may wait until the last minutes. Still a few week to go before year end.
- Management seems to try hard to paint a "so-so picture" for the upcoming PEA, just good enough as a starting point as an "amuse-gueule", a conspiracy, or part of a seven-veil dance. What they are doing is to provide a paper exercise for potential bidders to justify to their own shareholders that ICG has the basic goods to make a very profitable mine with a low Capex. But, they also dangle a large carrot in Q1, the updated RE for Triangle and some satellite deposits, and of course the Sigma Mill, at least the use of it.
When a TO would take place? It would depend on the situation. One could study the history for previous habits, but habits can change. For example, ELD would start at 15% and when it increased the holdings to around 19% it will strike, but not necessary this time. G on the other hand has a habit of spending around $500M for a brand new deposit. It does not worry much about a mill, since it can have one built, or use one of their under- used mill (in the case of PRB). They have done two acquisitions recently @ about the same range. In the case of Osisko, G learned a hard lesson for not being snappy (and being cheap) and hence lost the prize (of a producing mine) to AEM and YRI. Also bad blood between Osisko and G top people. These examples seem to say that it would be difficult to lay determine the timing. BUt, in the case of ICG, one the snow ball starts to roll down the slope, it would be hard to stop, since many people would know what ICG is having (ELD is an insider for Triangle and surrounding; ICG has many former G high level managers, too many moles,... and AEM? I would bet that it knows ICG inside out too).
Expect some firework display in the new year, after the PEA, even before the updated RE? Those majors can crank out the numbers by themselves...and all the chatters at the local watering holes in the Valley of Gold.
All H... will break loose in Q1, at the latest Q2. I will stand by the bet of 1.75/s for the first half of the choo choo. What do you say HTG?
GH