Further thoughts re the RVX updateI judge by the paucity of posts after Don's update perhaps we are all sitting here stunned. I should not be stunned but I guess I had hope. Even for Don, who I normally rate at 3 out of 5 for his best presentations, this one certainly rates lower in terms of the lack of addressing business issues in concrete terms.
I downloaded the PDF of the presentation and read it in the hope of developing some positive frame of mind. I recommend to everyone to download it and review it.
I remain very positive about the science and it's potential for many indications (and therefore, I wonder why BP are not knocking at the door...perhaps they are?).
On page 22 Don goes through a laundry list of financing options with absolutely nothing concrete in terms of direction. He claims they are in discussions and I believe it but it sure leaves me scratching my head.
ledenfrog on Agora makes an excellent point. Now that the RPS share structure has been approved Don can move forward with negotiating agreements with potential partners. The RPS could or would have a significant influence on the structure of deals not just on apabetalone but also other RVX compounds. So we may now start to see some options on p22 of the presentation getting dealt with and he must move quickly with $15 million cash on hand and a burn rate of $2.5 million per month (that is 6 months unless they reduce costs).
P8 - indicated a new scientist has been hired. That's good in my books and one key observation for me is that in the past year they have brought on board scientists with specializations in the various other indications they are exploring. These specialists will have many connections in their areas of expertise and hence, with a bit of success this momentum will grow.
P14 - refers to the cardio/renal IND with expected FDA approval in Q1 2017. I sure like that and it will push Don to get funding.
P17 - Don says that apabetalone has been tested in over 1000 patients (with no safety concerns) but he does not make clear if this includes ASSURE and SUSTAIN trials. I guess the number obviously includes those trials because I don't think the BETonMACE trial has reached that level at this stage.
P18 - Talks about BETonMACE in terms of well known objectives, primary endpoints and secondary endpoints. It does not provide any concrete status of dosing and rates of new patients entering the trial.
P22 - This page outlines the funding options but they are open ended. It is just a laundry list. As led mentioned, perhaps with RPS resolved action will start to take place on funding.
P29 - Deals with net present value (NPV) projections. This must be where Don gets his Ray Kroc $1,000,000,000 figure. Under a scenario with RRR>25% they provide the NPS at different stages;
- Phase lll EU - $1,761 million or $14.67 per fully diluted share.
- Phase lll EU completion - $3,917 million or $32.64 per fully diluted share.
- Market Approval EU + Phase lll USA - $4,449 million or $37.08 per fully diluted share. (assumes EU market entry in 2021).
- Full Market Approval - $6,302 million or $55.52 per fully diluted share.
Anyway, my current bottom line is that good science is proceeding. Also, I do believe Don will resolve the financing, perhaps with some dilution. I have no concerns on that.
Of course the the AGM had to be done by obligation. The reason for the delay was the Zenith Capital RPS. I believe led makes an excellent point that now that this is complete Don can proceed on to financing business.
I still do not have a clue what drove the volume and price increases starting Sept 13th 2016.
The update IMHO was very poor because there was very few concrete commitments. I sense Don didn't really care (perhaps he has his next move in line now that the RPS is resolved???).
Finally, as I go back through the science side I realize how much understanding of apabetalone has been gained since July of 2013. The fact that apabetalone has positive impacts on 6 critically important pathways ( complement cascade, coagulation, reductions in calcium deposits in the vasculature, reduction in mediators that promote inflammation, increased ApoA-l, reduced glucose absorbtion) and that this is leading to new applications on different and ranging indication opens up enormous opportunites.
So GLTA.
Toinv