you just can't make this stuff up....
You know these guys have done a pretty good job with both the content and timing of their attack pieces when they have been able to create some doubt amongst some of the most knowledgeable, informed and ardent supporters . My phone / text / email has been buzzing for the last number of days with people all over the country on this last weeks shenanigans. No doubt, peoples nerves are rattled.
I have a few observations and conclusions.
There is absolutely no doubt that this managment group has been overoptimistic for many years now... and it starts at the top. ITs been very well documented here by myself and others
In fairness, the nature of the old primary business model of depending on third party drug development clients for resin revenue is partly to blame. The resin business is far too concentrated on a handful of successful clients ( Octopharma , GSK ) and its almost wholly dependent on the relative success of the third party company's drugs.
Lets be absolutely clear, Prometic has ZERO culpability in the fact that Octopharma's main product Octoplas has been relatively slow to be adopted, nor do they have any culpability in the fact that GSK's drug sales have been well below expectations.
They do have control of their FORECASTS however, and quite clearly their forecasts bought into the higher end of expectations of their customers forecasts, and that has caused a big chunk of the disappointments. in retrospect, they should have been far more conservative.... and their misss have been damaging. But there is a huge difference between overoptimism and outright malicious deceipt. Its clear to me the problem here is the former... .and thats a huge differentiation. Having been in this story for 20 years, I do think part of the overoptimism stems out of the fact that this company rose from the ashes and has re invented itself out of necessity and opportunity. Doesnt make it right, but my point is its been well intentioned and built on extremely hard work.
What you can say 100% , is the revenue from the resin business has absolutely helped forward the PPPS platform a vert long way, and has certainly helped fund the small molecule drug aspect of the biz... and those are now the main drivers of this company.
Amid all the bold capital letter posts of the number of shares outstanding, and the innacurate burn rate and financing claims.....I find it really interesting how Team Short never discusses the IP VALUE BUILD. The heart of this company is the IP value, which after an incredible run of absolutely indisputable clinical successes, has increased dramatically over the last couple of years....
I would contend confidently that the IP value of this company has NEVER BEEN HIGHER than it is today. I am quite sure that the INDUSTRY value of the PPPS platorm.... or the Plasminogen business specifically didnt go down 40% in the last 6 weeks, same can be said for the value of 4050 in one or more of the huge indications where it has shown efficacy.
At the end of the day, you just gotta try to have a level head and ask yourselves if you can navigate thru the near ridiculous and inflammatory unsubstantiated accusations and claims, and rather, focus on the words of worldwide industry experts as well as very well heeled analysts who have done their homework.
I just think its going to be fascinating to listen and watch how the likes of David Martin and Black Mamba try to wiggle their way out of their positions when a reputable large pharma pays big dollars for a geography or an indication of 4050. They will probably suggest that Big Pharma didnt do enough due diligence and point to the failures of that specific company's other drug failures, conveniently ignoring the successes as they have done so eloquently in their other claims !! Wont that be rich ?
I kinda find it odd that guys that seem to be pretty darn smart and tactful, are so careless in their exclusion of fact ?
Make no mistake. These guys have the basis of very significant deals in hand and they are going to get done.... and when they do.... this whole issue of outright questioning the technology, the molecules, the mechanism of actions etc will be forever put to bed... and the landscape and sentiment will be very very different.