OTCPK:TMBMF - Post by User
Comment by
dosperroson Dec 21, 2016 10:25am
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Post# 25629354
RE:Math is hard, but the seller behavior seems shortsighted.
RE:Math is hard, but the seller behavior seems shortsighted.dosperros wrote: Background:
I guesstimated the trailing 52 week price and volume before the monster Q4 that has hopefully changed minds about what this will do. It changed my mind; I went from owning zero shares to a lot, and quickly.
So, looks like we averaged about 100k shares a week trading, at a price a little about $1.00. So, that's about 5.2M shares traded in a year. Pretty modest. I means $5M in dollars too – very little.
Observation:
So, these who bought these five million shares are the only people who can be showing a profit for the most part. It’s because everyone else has a higher price point. E.g. Fairfax who still is sitting on a loss. So –of these ‘cheap’ 5 million shares that got picked up why are people are tossing them out now? Why? We can disagree on valuation and all, but if you got and list tens of thousands at dumb prices like 1.99 or 1.97 today it’s not a great strategy. FFS. Consider listing them at $2.01 and do yourself, and us all, a favour.
2.00 is very important. It’ll let me pick-up another 50k units on margin, so that’s my self-interest. But more importantly the incoming liquidity boost would let you fill the trade at least 2.05 I suppose. Banks, funds, jow blow retail guys tend to recoil in horror at stocks under $2.00. Keeping this pushed down in penny stock territory seems short-sighted, no, unless it's reckoned that it's a big fluke and will go back down? I’d reconsider than math.
For one more reference point, TMB tied Interfor for last Q earnings. IFP is worth a billion dollars. IFP is z one-trick pony facing down the prospect of brutal duties (up to 35% now apparently on lumber that, yes, hurt Tembec to some degree, but IFP is a pure play lumber co. They have no other revenue streams. You've read how I've noted that lumber for Tembec essentially does not matter; while ~25% of revenue it's <12% of profit. In the meantime at least the volume is high enough to absorb these dumb list prices but wow, if you need a tax loss that bad maybe try holding this in a registered account.
Update. The sellers are staying put now, and the buyers are creepnig up in terms of orders. That's good to see. At the end of the day there is some good balance, which helps.
What will distort things a lot though is if some fund wants to pick up a few million units. Then we see the crazy jumps by 50 cents or a dollar.