Concordia Healthcare Corp. T.CXR.R

RE:RE:Concordia Canada's Darling

[NOIRISH]

Marky1 wrote: Welcome Benji....I totally agree with you! $10 by next May.....

Well maybe you should read RBC's model.  Unfortunately photorin was yanked so that quashes upside scenario and they now call it the downside scenario, gulp.

Care to share what your EBITDA forcast is and how you came up with a $10 Target.?  I see RBC's target is between $0 and $1. What EV/EBITDA multiple are you using and how the heck are you justifying it?

Target price/base case

Our $1.00 (prev. $2.50) price target is based on the average of our EV/EBITDA valuation and DCF analysis. Applying a 7.25x multiple to our 2018 Adj. EBITDA forecast of ~$423MM generates a value of $1.05. Our DCF value (12.5% WACC and a -2% terminal growth rate) equates to $0.88. The average of our EV/EBITDA and DCF values is $0.97, rounded to our $1.00 price target. There are no further acquisitions included in our base case. We assume that Photofrin is approved for bile duct cancer in 2018.  Our $0 downside scenario utilizes a 7.2x multiple on 2018E Adj. EBITDA of $418MM (prev. $422MM), generating a value of $0.00. This scenario assumes slightly lower than anticipated portfolio demand and assumes the equity loses all value. We also assume increased AMCo competition and lower Donnatal demand.