The Dividend Battle... Value a company?Sorry, wanted to bring this back. It's a pretty seminal discussion. Growth vs. stability.
FYI, I like some cash cows. (Not in a bad, pejorative sense, but in how BCG uses them https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth%E2%80%93share_matrix). E.g. I like some big payers like NVU.UN (~8% for slum lordin') and GEI (~7% for oil movin'). WEF is a cash cow.
I supect it should have been -- and should be -- a GD "rising star". See link for context.
More context: this is a learning curve for me. I don't have a CFA. That's the fancy boy finance thing. But I've done Y years in the forest industry (more than 7) with X years business/finance formal education (more than 5, just not to self-incriminate). Where I steer this is P/E is not the best ratio generally. "Profit is an opinion" say my collages in suit-land. Rightfully so. Moreover, in a capital-intensive business how do we suss out who is "underleveraged" vs. "good" vs. "sky is falling in debt?". P/E don't do that.
It's a capital structure agnosticism. In other words, how can we rank CFX (no debt) vs. IFP (quite a bit) vs. WEF (not much)? Or TMB (oh sweet Dios so much debt!!!) Do check up on EV/EBITDA as the big brother to P/E. And it can shine a hard light on some real underappreciated players. The nice thing is Joe and Jane average can kind of "know" when and what something will jump by. E.g. I know WEF is a nice stock with $2.50 upside; I also know TMB is a hated stock with a $9.00 upside. (Granted, @*#! can go wrong -- I have seen it!). The perfect mix is perfect execution with shining city-on-the-hill brilliance: Norbord. But, as much as love them, they can't go north of $45. Won't happen until years out. EV/EBITDA is where it's at. They are fully valued. It's why they are 3B company. But in 5 years they'll be a 4.5 billion company. And I'm not in it for a 32% return; I've got retiring at 35 to do.
Even more context: who has read Slaughthouse Five? Billy Pilgram has become unstuck in time. The Tralfamidorians (sp) can see in the 4th demension. Kinda like me :)
Anyway, I'm sure I've met Insidetheropes somewhere in my travels over my 6-10 mills in two firms (actual number not disclosed) because we have the same outlook and background. And there is a sophistication of 'what actually happens in a billion dollar company' that I detect. Yet, you have more years though -- so when I am CEO-ready (i.e. enough grey + 20years more experience) I have a cushy director spot with your name on it. Ditto with Louel of course. If you taught me how to supervise a planermill graveyard shift please disregard the mistakes on the greivences lol. In the mean time, all is well and I'm actually in a a good portfolio spot this year thanks to reading Conifex right (60%), Tembec (40% and climbing), and Norbord (70%). Not to brag, but hoping to legitimize my sometimes nasty commentary because I see this a puzzle to solve and to do right by the logging towns I grew up in. And this sector does will by having smart and cool backers like you guys. We need all the help we can get.
I've wanted on and off and WEF being an age play. Load this bad boy up if you value income and stability. It's a good company. I could see someone going broke on CFX or Fortress or RFP, but not here -- slow and steady with a 4% payout and a 30% upside? Heck yes. Anyway young people need to go for bigger gains and mostly thru dollar cost averaging smart ETFs. And sorry Rhino I'm probably more lkely to get a small private equity fund than you, let alone a hedge fund. But we can all dream.
Have a Merry Christmas all and forgive any terse posts where I rip on people in the Level2s for supply side issues. And yes, Mr Rhino, I'm going to hammer some rum since the baby is alseep and it's time to get out of the suit.
Adios amiogs.