RE:RE:Another delay is not acceptable I agree with Doug’s comment – we are close.
I’m a UK investor so follow the price in sterling. It is less than 2p from its 52 week closing high, essentially following the price of Brent up except for a very brief pullback on the news of the JB delay. Trading volume on the UK exchange is typically 5-10 times trading on the TSX, so it isn’t surprising that volatility on the TSX exchange is greater and a North Sea earthquake in the small hours doesn’t help Canadian investor nerves. If the TSX chart is causing jitters I’d urge investors to take a look at the IAE.L price graph.
At the Q3 update on the 14th Nov the progress report was “The FPF-1 offshore commissioning programme is on-going, involving preparation of the topsides processing and utility systems for the introduction of hydrocarbons. This work is well advanced, with the operations team focused on completing the required inspections and associated readiness activities required to enable a safe and efficient start-up of the wells. It is anticipated that this work will be completed around the end of November and enable start-up of Stella production.”
Inspections are done for a reason, which became clear to investors with the announcement of the JB problem on the 25th Nov. “During routine inspections, faults on a number of electrical junction boxes on the vessel's processing facilities have been identified and a programme of necessary repairs is underway. All other preparations are on plan. Start-up is now anticipated in early January 2017, upon completion of this additional work.”
The Q4 update and outlook statement is typically presented during the 2nd week of January – so due next week. I think it is safe to say there will be an update on Stella. If first oil isn’t next week I’m confident it will flow quite soon. I’m not planning to sell on first oil news, so the news I’m looking forward to is cap ex plans for the year, news on Vorlich FDP and the hub expansion, followed by the sustainable production rate from Stella a month or two after first oil. These outcomes will have a greater impact on the share price 6-12 months out than the precise date of first oil, which by then will be history. Fingers crossed ;-)
Happy New Year,
Londoner7