OTCPK:MGMXD - Post by User
Comment by
materialsgirlon Jan 05, 2017 11:10am
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Post# 25670320
RE:Marin Katusa on Alterra
RE:Marin Katusa on AlterraRJ
Thank you for the posting. Here is a link for Katusa that explains green energy.
He is forecasting (roughly) that by 2020 AXY may have ~ 600 MW ownership and manage roughly 1,200 MW. The family would then have 10 or 11 production facilities; up from 7 last month and up from 8 today.
Katusa's musings all seem reasonable. Just one and only one big headwind. Will they enjoy sufficient revenue to cover costs and leave enough crumbs for investors.
The performance of AXY management regarding profitability has been horrible for 6 years but 2017 is beginning to look promising. Scale is getting bigger which means better. We will see over the next 7 months (2016 plus Q1 and Q2 2017 actual results)
https://katusaresearch.com/your-edge-in-the-energy-sector-how-katusas-green-barrels-of-energy-gboe-metric-works/
We only know 2 things for certain about the future of green energy, particularly wind and solar.
1 The Donald Trump factor. It will be zero or slightly positive. He was outright lying about coal.
Coal is dirty and also expensive versus cleaner natural gas. Donald knew full well that he was lying and so this rush to reopen coal mines will not happen. It is certain.
Legislation and regulations about green energy are managed by states, not by Washington.
Let Trump try to build a coal plant in Los Angeles or the Bronx !
2. The cost of building wind and solar farms will continue to fall through 2020. The turbines and solar panels have seen the prices crash PLUS the newer turbines and newer panels are gradually getting more efficient. So, the cost of installing a MW keeps on dropping. That is the good news. The flip side is that the price customers will pay for electricity will keep on dropping. This is a reality.
The challenge for AXY and all green energy players is to have the costs of building a facility fall faster than the revenue they get. In this way there will be a good Return On Invested Capital (ROIC)
Happy New Year
mat