2017 PredictionsAnother year behind us and another 360 days left for this one!
2016 was a year which brought much needed refreshment to Alterra: new projects, what appears to be a new business strategy was implemented, new capital plan (share consolidation, capital raise, refinance), and new expectations.
The new expections from 2016 have been tempered in my mind now. I am comfortable with my position and the company, but do not find any urgency to add to my position. This could be due to years of building a position and limiting % of net worth, increase in share price, etc.
Entering 2017 we find Alterra in a stronger financial position with what appears to be a more solid pipeline of projects. With that said, from the ~June announcments my Mr. Carson and the 3rd quarter call statement by Mr. Beaty were is all of the additional PR, news and new pipeline opportunities?
I am a grounded optimist with Alterra. I do see a brighter future; but I also see and understand the frustrations of some which have been posted on this board.
- Prediction #1 for 2017: Partner and pipeline announcements increase at an unexpected rate (not sure what this means, 1 a month or 1 a quarter, but I am open to surprises)
- Prediction #2 for 2017: Dividend announcement for an increase. This may not be effective until 2018, but it will be teased mid-year or so. With the refinance and arbitration behind us as well as the positive cash flow on several power plants the financial will somehow support a higher dividend (or perhaps the company will raise more capital for it - ha I beat Mat to it! :) )
- Predicition #3 for 2017: Frustration from shareholders will force additional board position and\or board turnover
- Prediction #4 for 2017: Alterra forms a non-profit foundation to assist in its leadership in the clean energy arena
- Prediction #5 for 2017: Alterra continues to win awards for projects, they use these awards and recognitions to position themselves as industry leaders which in-turn leads to better projects (see Prediction #1). This may also lead to employee compensation issues (good ones want more or leave and\or having to hire great professionals to take Alterra to the next level)
- Prediction #6 for 2017: Alterra creates a new position for a future leader of the company and\or has a management shakeup at a (at least) division level
Stock price: 2017 range from today $5.15 CAD to a low of $4.20 CAD to a high of $8.50 CAD. We end the year 12/31/2017 at ~$7.20 CAD or lower. I hope I am wrong here as I would prefer a much higher year-end stock price, but it would be a ~20% return for the new shareholders from the offering + dividend.
With Alterra I also like to describe myself as "curiously optimistic" and I do plan on adding to my position on any significant weakness.
Best wishes to you and your family during 2017,
Bold Forbes