RE:Sales Numbers: I welcome critique of my math and numbersJust wanna say thanks to you and Yoda for putting some real thought and effort into your DD and sharing it with all of us. The only issue i saw with your numbers is in the projected sales per quarter, it just seems a bit on the high side as it projects approx 3000 kg sold when CGC reported around 1200 kg in November. That being said, i am no accountant. I'd also be interested to hear what people think a "reasonable" SP would be for the rev totals you listed.
ChacenAces wrote: Have I got this right? I am far from an expert. I look forward to polite challenges to my assumptions. Projections for CGC with MT sales per quarter minimum?
As of September 30, 2016. Source Links below. - Health Canada average amount of marijuana for medical purposes per client shipment (grams/day) = 0.89
- Health Canada Total number of clients registered at end of quarter = 98,460
- Combined average consumer cost per gram of MT & Canopy = $8.34
- Combined number of MT & CGC patients = 37,700
- MT & CGC patient market share = 38%
* .89 grams per day X 90 days X 98,460 patients x .38 market share x $8.34 per gram = $24,994,358.50 projected sales per quarter.
-$99,977,4343 in annual medical sales for 2017 assuming no hiccups. Note this does not take into account that the rumour is patient registrations are now above 130,000 - this data not reported on HC website yet.
This sounds really good to me but I really like to look at things conservatively so please correct my logic or numbers herein as I look forward to intelligent conversation on this and by no means am I locked into this.
Also...assuming these numbers are correct...what would you put a share price at for Canopy doing:
1) $50,000,000 in sales per year?
2) $75,000,000 in sales per year?
3) $100,000,000 in sales per year?
Source Links:
- https://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/dhp-mps/marihuana/info/market-marche-eng.php
- https://news.lift.co/nov-1-2016-acmpr-market-summary/
- https://www.canopygrowth.com/
- https://www.mettrum.com/