RE:RE:Sales Numbers: I welcome critique of my math and numbersI think his math is based off a monthly client increase of 10%. So when mettrum and cgc both add 10% each per month. It's actually a 240% increase annually. That being said. I'll drop it down to 100%. If in november they sold 1200kg. Then next November they would have sold 2400kg + whatever for just CGC not including whatever MT brings to the table. I would guess there sales range next year is in the 3500 - 5500KG range once the MT merger is complete.
SquishyInc wrote: Just wanna say thanks to you and Yoda for putting some real thought and effort into your DD and sharing it with all of us. The only issue i saw with your numbers is in the projected sales per quarter, it just seems a bit on the high side as it projects approx 3000 kg sold when CGC reported around 1200 kg in November. That being said, i am no accountant. I'd also be interested to hear what people think a "reasonable" SP would be for the rev totals you listed.
ChacenAces wrote: Have I got this right? I am far from an expert. I look forward to polite challenges to my assumptions. Projections for CGC with MT sales per quarter minimum?
As of September 30, 2016. Source Links below. - Health Canada average amount of marijuana for medical purposes per client shipment (grams/day) = 0.89
- Health Canada Total number of clients registered at end of quarter = 98,460
- Combined average consumer cost per gram of MT & Canopy = $8.34
- Combined number of MT & CGC patients = 37,700
- MT & CGC patient market share = 38%
* .89 grams per day X 90 days X 98,460 patients x .38 market share x $8.34 per gram = $24,994,358.50 projected sales per quarter.
-$99,977,4343 in annual medical sales for 2017 assuming no hiccups. Note this does not take into account that the rumour is patient registrations are now above 130,000 - this data not reported on HC website yet.
This sounds really good to me but I really like to look at things conservatively so please correct my logic or numbers herein as I look forward to intelligent conversation on this and by no means am I locked into this.
Also...assuming these numbers are correct...what would you put a share price at for Canopy doing:
1) $50,000,000 in sales per year?
2) $75,000,000 in sales per year?
3) $100,000,000 in sales per year?
Source Links:
- https://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/dhp-mps/marihuana/info/market-marche-eng.php
- https://news.lift.co/nov-1-2016-acmpr-market-summary/
- https://www.canopygrowth.com/
- https://www.mettrum.com/