RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:revenue expectations managementScott, your conservatism is well earned, and likely justified ! but lets hope your light ....
I had an exchange with Fred and Pierre a week or so ago. Admittedly this is WAY out of my area of expertise ( whatever that is these days ) but I was very interested to learn that there are two major classifications of Congenital Deficiency. Type 1 and Type 2. An easy example of this is in David Martins report. In his recent update where he lowered the prospective market for Pg for CD, he cited 1.6 patients of CD per million of population, whereby the US CD patient population would be approx 500. What he fails to mention is that the Type 2 CD patients number in the 100's of thousands. Whereby many of the worst type 2 patients symptoms are as bad as Type 1's, and would equally benefit from Pg.... thereby substantially raising the prospective target patient numbers.
In fact, I think Fred and PL said that many of the patients in their Phase 2/3 trial were Type 2 CD patients.
Amazing how the truth and conclusions can be bent by ommission eh ? I guess thats what you have to do when you are paid to make a point and you really dont have anything else to hang your hat on.
At any rate, we are all rightly focussing on the prospective patient size for CD, because its the first opportunity for PLI's purified form. Anyone with a modicum of patience will recognize that the prize is not far off here, regardless of how quickly Pg for CD rolls out because the other extremly promising indications are simply not that far off.
Having said that, if the worldwide patient population is in the 5000-6000 range for CD, and the ultimate adoption is 2000-3000 patients at $75k per annually, you get north of $150mm without ANY off label.... and I cant imagine it will take that long to get there if the results are as incredibly compelling as they appear to be.
At the end of the day, this is going to amount to proving grounds for an expansion into much larger Pg applications and into IVIG.... you just gotta have the stamina to hang in thru the noise.
HAE had roughly the same 5000-6000 patient size for the C1-INH protein market which Shire ended up paying $4.2B for when they bought Viropharma. One of these days in the not too distant future, some of these valuation comparables are going to take hold, either in the form of an actual deal, a hostile takeout bid... or just the markets confidence / realization that either is becoming inevitable as the odds continue to improve and discount rates are lowered.