RE:RE:RE:RE:What is the deal with the enormous bid and ask sizes?I am with you on what I understand well, and trust you on what I understand with less confidence. My recent posts have been mostly tactical SP movement analysis, intuitive, but apparently on the money much more often then not.
So my post today was looking at the momentum and seeing both a reduce likelihood of ST SP deflation (of any significance), and a reduced likelihood of a Gap Up or steady SP appreciation happening right away. I mean the signals are not there, yet. That could change in 2 minutes, but until the balloon goes up, it hasn't yet.
We are both saying this is consolidation at .115-.125 and that is bullish. The bottom is in. Every day makes a confidence-eroding SP decline less and less possible.... But I still half-expect the attempt to be made, and thus it would have to be at a high cost for the sellers. House 83's sell into the close might have been the first column, but I doubt it.
And based on probable outcomes considering fundamentals and trading psychology, we both have been calling for .14-15 before the FS. Sometimes the signals suggested higher, sooner (to .17?), but now those signals have gone dormant.
The most likely status is that even the sellers are really just delatying the inevitable, at the lowest possible cost. They want it to be all quiet on the Convalo front. So they have maximum options in the lead-up to the FS. Drive it down to shake the tree or just buy everything by turning onthe foolish asks who really want to sell and annihilating the stack to .15 in half an hour.
All along I have been saying buy soone for a tictch ore maybe rather than wait and lose out on the chance to add at .12 or .13, hopign for a half-cent discount before the bombardment begins.
I don't know if people appreciate my extended battlefield allegory, but it seems to capture the spirit of the actual trading behaviors I am observing. But I have that backgfround. As illustration does it add to the understanding of readers?
My last illustation (Overlord/D-Day) suggests that the breakout to victory may be long fought and resisted vigorously (as it has been), but as soon as we broke the momentum down in November (as was inevitablesooner or later), only one side can win this battle. The most important step was to establish the beachhead, and we went all the way to .145!
So I anticipoate that we take Berlin (at .75) in 9 months from November. PHM (the Soviets) will probably get there first, and may do more of the hard fighting past .35 and .30.
No predictions on when the Lead Basher poisons his dog.
But is Trump gets his veneance-weapons into service, all bets are off. For any company. Sick thought: Drones and Rockets. Yep. Same scenario, but much worse, because the President-elect has no clue who the real enemy is. Friend or foe? "Who cares, shoot 'em all!"
I need a break. I started out optimistic. Sorry. Maybe Convalo will do well because of milions of new addicts who can't go on living without getting stoned out of our minds.
GLT
ALL. We need it.
masfortuna wrote: Hi Chase,
I'm just basing my expectations of the movement on the 90 day moving average and the 200 day moving average. we had a good pop to .13 from .08 and maintained most of the gains. The consolidation at the .115 -.125 we have been seeing now for about a month is actually a bullish signal. I suspect most of the asks are fake with the theory that if I really thought this was going lower " WETHER I GET OUT AT .12 OR .115" would be irrelevant. The question would be why sell at .12 then???? I think some are the flippers who are still buying at .115 and selling at .12 BUT if this is the case it is becoming much harder for them based on the volume being on the low side.
The last time this consolidated at a certain level for about 1 month we got our last pop and it moved rather quickly. Now with the q expected in 3 weeks I think my target of it trading in the .11 -.14 and then hit .15 ( about 25% from here) in the last week seems to be fair.
Im hoping for revs in this q to be between 9-11 million. 9 will give us a minor loss (1 million) and 11 a minor gain (1 million) based on the opex of the last q. We had no real capex this q. Anything above 11 million and this should take off. Anything below 9 and we revisit .10'ish although it will depend how much less.
I'm betting on my numbers being rellay close to the actual figures. What I don't like are some of the unrealistic expectations some are "pinging" around. $1.50??????!!!!! (so a market cap of 350 million) is not in the cards for awhile and just leads to disappointment. I can see .30 -.40 if we break the 11 million rev mark in a big way ( which makes us profitable).
Gl to all
Mas