RE:Gandolph..... RE: TGZauburn2,
In my December 18th post, I had estimated that Teranga's gold production this quarter would be 47,985 ounces and that maximum gold sales based on their 4000 ounces of unsold gold left over from the previous quarter would be 52,412 ounces. My estimate for best EPS this quarter was $0.01 per share.
Actual results for Teranga in Q4 were 43,900 ounces of gold produced which would put max Q4 gold sales at 48,300 ounces which is a 4k miss. My new number for max EPS on TGZ for Q4 is $0.006--that's 6/10 th of a penny per share, and that is my high number! So that implies that shovel problems have limited ore production to around 300,000 tones this quarter. I look forward to watching the train wreck at the quarterly earnings report.
From glancing at the technical chart, it looks like a setup for an ABC down, and my target price is a retest of the 2016 lows. I think that retest of the low would be a decent entry point for a thin margin overhyped stock.
Meanwhile, here at Orvana, the whole World believes that this is a high cost producer that will never get out of the SUB BASEMENT. Meanwhile, my profit projection for Orvana which I posted on December 18th was a little over $3 million dollars. That estimate was based on El Valle milling 1350 tpd. That was before I heard Jim Gilbert's throughput update where he said that extra ore from the Carles restart had already boosted daily mill throughput to 1850 tpd. So my new estimate on Orvana is a profit of $5 million USD in Q4, based on an average gold price of $1180. Since Orvana had hedged part of their gold production at $1300, I am feeling good about my profit estimate for ORVMF.