RE:There's reason for optimismPhilDavis wrote: Personally, I’m very optimistic about upcoming earnings. So much so I intend to increase my position in Convalo significantly before the announcement.
Mas and Chase, no offence because I very much respect your opinion, but think that you both are too long with CXV (following its decline) and have for the time being lost a grain of optimism necessary in this business.
Although I’m fully aware that stocks downtrodden as this one is, climb back up with great difficulty, I still think that fundamentals are the only valid argument considering SP.
And they will be substantial come February the 1st. So I honestly believe providing Convalo holts its expansion for the FY as promised, we will be looking at valuations close to CAD 1 by the end of CY. This might seem far-fetched but after impressive quarter, two or three …
This of course providing trading volume picks up. And it will after revenue comes out. Then all argumentation related to fraudulent activities of management on this board and similar will in a hurry become irrelevant. The rest of the job will be done by earnings announcement in May and momentum (hype). Competition, as somebody noted, is of no real significance. Convalo significantly cut its own costs by expanding, and its facilities are strategically located where the business is – in commercial districts of California. A win–win situation! All it needs is a bit more patience.
Good luck to us all!
Phil Davis
Welcome back, Phil.
If I was jaded I would not have been adding even more--even with some new money in the pot for my total investments, CXV is 1/3 of all my equities. That's not just bullish; That's crazy. So I have to have good reasons to act crazy, and you are naming them.
Seems my "play-by-play" and "colour commenrtary" on what's happened and might happen next is giving a false impression. Where I expect to go with Convalo long-term, and where I expect the SP be this afternoon or this Friday can coexist as seeming contradictions.
When is the right time to sell a winner? Today Bombardier is at at new high I've been expecting to be shattered, and it will go higher still even if we see some roll-back in the next month. But my finger is on the sell trigger now because I want to take profit for other value buys I sold for liquidity in the autumn... partly to buy more Convalo ... and I just loaded up on BBD preferred shares. So even after I sell my overweight position in the next week or so, my long position there will also be larger than a month ago. But long-term I still expect it to triple in 2-3 years, so my deepest stategy is, how much can I hold indefinitely?
Same with Convalo. When we pass .17, .25 and .30 I will likely be reducing just for the sake of a sane balance.... while fully -expecting CXV at .35-.50 later in 2017.
GLTAL CYD