RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Improvements in op margins are the key as the @Pieper… Well there are many on this site who do provide valuable insights. You, T64 etc. being certainly some of the most consistent and logical.
I view T64 input as logical and from the sounds of it, he has a financial calculation or tool that is supposed to drive the value of a stock.
Now, IF and I say IF, people accept the guru opinions of the financial institutions, these so-called experts, are to be listened to and in most cases taken for their word.
These “expert” talk about how great or poorly the economy is going. Tell of great insights to stock trends by in reality telling us that a graph is going up or down!! Telling us that things look good or bad, BUT… things may change due to external influences. No Sh$t Sherlock! I am paraphrasing of course and do so in my unpolished and grammatically challenged manner. But the overwhelming truth is that these talking heads are just that, all talk and no real insights. If they truly KNEW what was going on, they would not be commuting to work like all the other schleps stuck in traffic like the Walmart cashier, forklift operator or the VP of some company. So as usual money talks and BS walks. People do not sit in traffic for hours because they wish to be humble and feel part of the greater community. They are stuck breathing fumes because they have no choice. If they truly had a finger on the pulse of the economy, they would be trading from home and maybe taking a chopper to “THEIR office”
These ever so bright bunnies were the same tools from all the big finance houses that just prior to CFO leaving were telling us how the stock was worth 38, 40, and I believe I even noticed 60. AVO was keeping their financial growth targets, expanding market etc. Maybe their profit did slip and I can see a few days, weeks or even a few months of nervousness over departure of CFO. BUT, for stock to tumble like it did would in theory require more than a bit of nervousness on the part of a well informed and professional forecaster of stock values.
All the firms telling us it was a hold or buy at 20, 25,30.. should be stating the very same or SIMILAR thing today but they are not. Remember, AVO stock was based in great part on the companies continued growth pattern in a growth market and appearance that AVO would meet sales targets. Well, AF has met targets and last year’s growth is still on steady upwards trend.
So, if they have the appraisal wrong NOW, then it tells this security professional accustomed to lies and deceit that the same geniuses were full of horse manure 2-3 years ago.
So, to recap, I think T64 analytics sound like one of the logical and honest tools available to appraise a stock’s current and of course speculative worth. I also believe there are other factor in play and I speculate they are of a manipulative nature. Will T64 guidelines automatically propel the stock to 40 or will it be prone to other less honest or neutral forces remains to be seen. BUT, the honesty of T64’s guidelines driving the share values should be seen within the next six months. The only caveat to the six-month window is that I have seen for as back as I can remember, federal departments in Canada freezing any great or even medium purchases or decisions once an election is called. It usually takes a few months’ post-election win for their slow, fearful and process based minds to get back into gear, so Q4 may be a bit off in sales. I have no hard insights to how US bureaucrats react but I would by the nature of the beast, suspect they would be similar.
So, question to anyone is, will T64’s theory on its own work for AVO or does something else need to be added to his formula?
I still believe a strong made in the US marketing campaign is needed (National TV ads?).
Further listing on US markets after a one month TV campaign
Cyber and lawyer effort to jam up possible manipulation. It may not stop all of it, but It would likely make some fearful of an early morning raid on their home and those rumours can spread like wildfire in certain communities. Remember, a great many wealthy people also have other skeletons in their closet. Divorce can be very expensive J