Tambourah Metals Ord Shs T.TMB.W

RE:RE:Trading forecast this week. Smart money waits; retail thrash

[dosperros]

Rough morning for me.

"Bull case: 57M was the mid case.  It's just the jumping off point.  Imagine $75M a Q?  A $300M year would be giant.  At a basic 5.75 multiple, less $654M in debt, means this rises to "

I zoned out and didn't finish this thought.  The math here take it to $10.71 a share.  The multiplier is just arbitrary, but it is an industry average of 9.0 and a de facto average these days of 5.25 to 6.00.  Even guys like Conifex and Fortress trade at 6 times EBITDA or so.  TMB can play catch-up at get to 7 or 8 dollars a share without even breaking a sweat.  

It's going to be a bumpy ride there though.  I anticipate 3 or 4 flash crashes a month, of up to 80 cents each.  It's because of momentum people who don't know anything about the firm and fundamental value and try and ride the +15% days; but for every two 15% days there is one -20% day.  They panic and sell.  If I am shorting Valliant or long on a tech stock I would do the same; there is sketchy intrinsic value and you don't want to get Nortel'd or Bre-X'd.  That's the nature of this; stake a position as cheaply as possible and go from there.  Normally I'd be on margin too now as a kicker but I've got to wait until about $3.50 or so because of the flash crash bulls**t and can't have this close below 2.00 on a margin position (my bank doesn't let you margin sub 2).  On that note, who knows, maybe Jim and co help faciltate the liquidity with a share reverse split.  More accretive is a NYSE listing but they'll need to get north of a billion in market cap for that first.  A few year's away most likely.