NioThe world definitely doesn't need that much Niobium. 56,000 tonnes of Niobium produced in 2015.
https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/niobium/mcs-2016-niobi.pdf
So Aley produces 9000 tonnes a year. That increases the worlds supply by 15%, how elastic is the demand curve here? Molybdenum ws 40 bucks a pound and now is 8 dollars a pound.
I think if the market was placing a value on Aley, which I think we get 0 for anything other than Gibraltar right now (replacement cost, reserves, new zones) and we only get 25 cents on the dollar for Gibs real value (IE IF Gib was built today it would cost 1.3 billion our share less debt our stock price 4 or 5 dollars).
But if the market put a replacement value on Aley it would be 35 million which is TKOs investment in the project at this point. It is a great project but it's a tought location in the middle of nowhere (it takes 12 hours on dirt roads to drive there) it butts against a park, is smack in the middle of a special management area, has sensitive populations of Caribou, grizzly, stones sheep to name a few. On the plus side the first Nations are more business like.
Either way Florence is 10 times the property of Aley. If we get 20 million for Florence right now it's a joke, Sure Aley has 860 million NPV but IRR is under 20 percent so the chances of moving ahead are limited. Florence and NP are far superior.
I like Telemarkers comments because he keeps it real. Gib is a great asset but barely makes it through the bottom of the cycle for cash costs. Things will improve.