George- the difference is Gold Creek's not included From the Oct. 31 NR.
This is what everyone is missing as it most likely will add ~ 2.000 boepd to the ~ 3.300 boepd but the company wanted to be conservative. Let's call it at least an even 5.000 boepd. That's near 50% growth:
"The modest 2017 drilling program at Waskahigan is expected to offset corporate declines and maintain pro-forma base production levels. The scheduled tie-in of the Gold Creek 3-22 Well in addition to successful follow-up Gold Creek drilling will enhance RMP’s 2017 production profile. The Company hopes to have completed the tie-in of the Gold Creek 3-22 Well by the end of the first quarter of 2017. Infrastructure commissioning and corresponding timing of expected production additions at Gold Creek, however, is dependent on ‘weather-friendly’ operating surface conditions during this forthcoming winter. The Company expects to have greater clarity on the progress of its key Gold Creek infrastructure initiatives during the first quarter of 2017. A second well will be drilled utilizing the same surface location in the first quarter and will be tested and produced through the new infrastructure. As such, RMP will provide updated guidance at the end of the first quarter of 2017."
Also keep in mind they have waited bringing wells online so they will be part of the new Alberta Royalty system which enhances ROI, which started in January. A waskahigan & Gold Creek well are drilling as we speak. In 2 weeks they will have 4 wells ready to be completed. Likely 3 will this quarter - provided Gold Creek facilities are ready. But the Waskahigan as said will at least keep production stable.
One other Gold Creek well will be brought online late in the summer. Countering any decline from the 2 to be brought on production and in Q3 3 more Waskahigan wells will be drilled.
If oil prices go up I think they will expand drilling.
Cheers,
R.