RE:To Resilience: Production Decline Rate, Growth, Debt Dec 17 George,
Overall, Resilience is correct, Gold Creek production is not included. Not because the company is conservative, they are simply not in a position to speculate on an asset which has no current or past production.
Not sure about production figures from the first 2 Gold Creek wells (if brought on stream before the end of Q1). Is it based on initial production (IP30?) or average for the remainder of 2017? We can all speculate but we should not expect the co to release any concrete figures from new wells in a new area until there is a smooth production for at least 30-60 days. We can only hope, those will be great figures and the street will notice.
In any event, due to declines, production numbers are moving targets. This is why investor friendly E&Ps issue updates and detailed summaries.
One example about these moving targets, is Ante Creek:
- 5000 boe/d (~45% oil) - August 2016, FirstEnergy sales presentation: Q2 average.
- 4,300 boe/d - Oct. 30, when reported sold.
- 3,800 boe/d - Nov. 15, when Enerplus disclosed the acquisition (existing production).
The same FirstEnergy presentation said Q2 Waskahigan was 2,090 boe/d (55% oil); Kaybob about 750 boe/d (88% gas) + some gas production from Pine Creek.
We know that in Q3 the co completed 3 Waskahigan wells + drilled 1 new well. This + Kaybob are a predictable assets so the 2016 exit rate of 3,200-3,300 boe/d (35% liquids) and what it takes to maintain it in 2017 should be accurate and hopefully it was a conservative figure.