Tambourah Metals Ord Shs T.TMB.W

Wk of Jan 16th in Review

[Lash99]

Futures - March at 326.50 & May 333.80
So this week we had a bit of everything. Futures came off from last Friday about $5-$8 for both months respectively. We had a bit of weather that buyers for the most part put their po books away .  Mr. Trump created a bit of volatility regarding NAFTA and what role the Canadian lumber market will play. He also created volatility with the Canadian dollar which lasted for about 2 days where Trump remarked that the U.S. dollar was too strong. The Canadian dollar strengthened but did go back to the 1.33 level it was before the comment.  The U.S. Housing Starts came out positive at over 1.2 million annually . Demand looks good for the near future  and I only have to look at companies in the U.S. like Universal Forest Prod , NVR Homes , Toll Bros , etc , to realize this will and is going to be a good year for lumber. We are getting pretty close to a good lumber rally that usually starts around the last week of January. The SLA is still in the forefront and the uncertainty is creating such a buildup in demand that no one knows what to do. For example , normally this time of year , because prices are cheap I/we wholesalers will put lumber on the ground both in Canada and the U.S. getting ready for the spring.  Now because the duty issue is hanging over the market , China thinks they can buy at a discount , Canada the same , all because of the impending duty and the U.S. is thinking I am only going to buy what I need because of possible cheaper prices . That and because they are limited to what the banks will allow them to buy because of lack of credit availability. Credit is easing in the States but they are still limited to total dollars no matter what the price of lumber is. I have to mention the issue of the allowable cut in BC again as this will be an automatic way of limiting lumber production and increasing lumber prices. Tembec has its financials being released on Thursday of next week and I think we will see the trend of the future with this release. I also believe they will be quite positive and I cannot believe why would anyone be selling their shares at these levels 1 week before the quarterly release ????? I think we closed at around $2.07 this week . Mind you the volume was quite low and when I see odd lots being traded I think there are games being played. Anyway , hang in for Thursday people , I have been positive in the past for this company and seeing what I am seeing on the wholesale side these past 12-24 months I am very positive for the future for lumber prices in the U.S. .Talk again on Thursday. Go Tembec ! Lash