On Montney declines & production + CJJ Pool 16.000 Boe/dObviously most Montney declines heavily, that's the nature of the beast. Gold Creek is also very wet - but this is a known fact in the area which they just deal with through engineering and injector wells.
Nontheless CIOC's JJJ pool produces 16.000 boe/d from just 6 sections and a midstreamer is putting in a pipe-line that can hold ~ 70 MMCF/D of gas capacity and 6000 BBL/D of oil capacity (this is the final design, I quoted a different number earlier). This is roughly 17.500 boepd.
So I have to disagree that no-one knows how this area is producing. From top of my mind there are ~ 18 wells directly neighbouring RMP from CIOC and the mid stream company won't put in a 17,5 k pipe-line for shits and giggles. If you go back to the latest presentation on P12 you will see a red pipe-line and a black dashed pipe-line which will be RMP's pipe-line. While other companies could tie-in to this pipe-line too, for the foreseeable future RMP is the only one filling that pipe-line as Velvet has it's own one. That seems like a big vote of confidence.
To the production of the wells and my estimated production; the wells don't produce 2.000-3.000 boepd, and I am not claiming that, this means you haven't checked. The RMP well tested at a final rate of 1.130 boepd. So my claim of about ~ 5.000 production would consist of say 3.300 current production and 2.250 boe/d from 2 Gold Creek wells is ~ 5.500 boepd, which I have adjusted somewhat to be conservative.
After that the declines will set in but they still have the 4-30 well in another section behind pipe. After some modifications this can be produced through the infrastructure bought from CKE. That's the eastern orange line on P10 in the presentation in the yellow 4 section block.
Since Waskahigan drilling is estimated to keep base production flat, I think they can hold that 4.500-5.000 boepd once Gold Creek is producing. A 35%-50% from current levels. Also all these wells will have increased economics because they were put online in January under the new royalty framework.
Also note that although the Waskahigan wells do decline fast they are still highly econmical at current levels IRR of 99% @ $ 50 WTI - so will be somehwat higher at current ~ $ 53 WTI. This will fund Gold Creek production which has double IRR of 199% and a pay-out of just 9 months - all highly sensitive to oil prices so this will massively improve by let's say $ 60 WTI.
I made an estimation of debt below, in my view this will be nowhere near $ 25 mln drawn: https://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=17871&mn=5167&pt=msg&mid=16768927 Presentation: https://rmpenergyinc.com/uploads/presentations/FE_GMP_Energy_Conf_Nov_2016.pdf R.