RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:A den of PumpersSo … the discrepancy in price appreciation …. been wondering myself. What about this:
- There are approximately 125M less shares of NXE to trade, implying a “rareness premium”
- The shares of NXE that are crossing the board are in new territory with every new high. There is no excess of “baggies” ( quoting TDad who seems to have vacated the bull boards ), in other words, long investors who have bought and rode the sp down,
- There are likely many millions of investors in FCU who have rode the sp down and still are holding their investment that are an impediment, a drag on future price appreciation momentum, some of who will have to be taken out on the way up again. Who knows it could be a 100M or more shares in this category. NXE in current terms does not have this wall to scale.
- There is likely a large block of this type of investor in the vicinity of the failed DML “merger” price some of which will have to be addressed on the way up.
- There may be an institutional investment preference for NXE who has not turned down a merger. FCU did it once it could happen again.
The foregoing points ignore the differences in the geomorphology/geology of the two deposits as well as the financials etc. but investors do consider such things and obviously this list presented above is not extensive - there are many other factors that come into play that make up the discrepancy.
That stuff being said:
- Dev is correct, the shallow orebodies will be mined first, that doesn’t mean a deeper orebody won’t be mined, Arrow as it is stated will be mined but very likely after PLS.
- NXE is in debt, FCU is not. There is a greater risk of shareholders loosing big time in the debt situation – examples take a look at what happened to Royal Oak at Kemess or North American Palladium at Lac des Iles. How do u pay off the debt with little or no income? Issue more shares I guess – that is coming to NXE soon. Or maybe u get yourself sold, where are the suitors? Maybe those who have looked noticed something?
- Shadeson was the first I saw posting who pointed out what NXE senior leadership described as their internally developed “unique” diamond drilling method, was nothing more than drilling along or parallel to the dip of the orebody. He pointed out that the so called “scissors” hole that were being to drilled to confirm the true width of the ore zone were not confirming the widths predicted by the initial down the dip drilling. Their consultant who is working on the RE had previously asked for more of these width confirming “scissors” holes. The few ‘scissors” holes that I saw reported were extremely steeply dipped as well and came no where near intersecting the ore zone perpendicularly to the dip of the ore zone. The true width could be half of what they think it is with this method of drilling if they have made a mistake. So my point is, if you could line up a hole just right, you could drill many hundreds of metres of high grade ore – in essence u have a good handle on the top to bottom dimension of the ore zone but no information on the width. Presents a good mental picture to naive investors and is also way cheaper than drilling across the ore zone.
- Why did the director leave???
There is greater upside available in owning FCU, certainly after the “baggies” are addressed.
All of this is just my opinion and be sure to do your own due diligence before investing.
B2S2