RE:RE:keystone pipelineI respectfuly disagree. I would suggest that an incremental means of egress for 800k+ of heavy oil should certainly put pressure on WCS/WTI differentials. Using Maya landed at the gulf as proxy for diluted CAD bbls, then marginal bbl out of canada should reach an equilibrium of Maya less transport back to origin. Maya = .40% WTS+ 10% (LLS +DBR) +k factor. Assume a histrorical relationship of Maya to brent of -5$/bbl then WCS at Hardisty should = Brent - 5- transport.
This changes the marginal bbl price from Hardisty off rail econs to pipe. Forward BR/WTI spreads in the 2.50 range would mean landed gulf coast heavy out of Hardisty at roughly WTI- 12. Compared to a q4 18 wcs spread of -17.60.
KXL really should have little imact on WTI flat price , ceteris paribus, so will allow you to use your chosen price deck forward curve.
This doesnt take into account the TRUMp factor on taxes, made in USA steel , and border tarriffs,
but think it will be positive once built.
Not sure it gets built before 2020, but from a reserve valuation , think it does impact ultimate pv.
Just my 2 cents of rambling. Open to rebuttal.
PS: have taken some liberty in my assumputions around K factor and Brent/Ti spreads, but think the genral thesis holds up.