RE:RE:Few random things for a FridayThat is correct. The question is how to interpret these numbers... assuming that these numbers are correct and that have not been manipulated...
For instance for zinc ores the drop in imports is roughly 1.2 million. Did China reduce these imports because there was not concentrate? Rmember the world lost 500k tons from Glencore. The closure of Century and Lisheen removed another 600k tons.
We know that the treatment charges have been dropping like a stone, from 200 down to 30-40 or maybe less. Does it mean that that China is not producing enough concentrate to keep their smelter working? if China cannot provide the concentrate why would not it go to the international market to get it? I think the answer is obvious, there is not enough.
Did you notice that the exports of refine zinc dropped by 77%? This number went from 100k to 21k. does it mean that China needs the bulk of the refined zinc baing produced?
The change for zinc alloy is very small
The change for imports of refine zinc is in the order of -22%. Does it mean that China has enough refined zinc and does not need to import or is this a sign that China is not willing to pay the higher price for zinc or does it mean that China does not want to spooke the zinc market by buying large quantities of refined zinc or....?
A lot of questions and for each one we can put forward some ideas...time will tell
One thing is for sure. No one can produce zinc concentrates out of thin air and if there is not enough to get around this will translate into a deficit of refined zinc. The only way around this is for mines to come online with the additional concentrates and this will take time.
Censino wrote: China is importing less: https://news.metal.com/newscontent/100720965/China-Zinc-Imports-and-Exports-Data-December-2016-