Tambourah Metals Ltd T.TMB.W

Wk of Jan 23 in Review

[Lash99]

Well hello and wow ! It's about time we saw a pop to the upside. We may see a little shorting next week however as I think the graphs said there were already about 16500 shorts in total out there.  Usually happens when the stock pops and the day traders play a little bit. According to the competition ie Canfor , West Fraser and dosperros's accounting we are still very undervalued . Good to see RBC and TD put their short term numbers up. So good luck to the shorters but I would be pretty cautious. Anyway here we go ,
Futures closed at : March 328.90 , May 336.40. 
This is up marginally from last week $2-$3 respectively . The cdn dollar strengthened a bit as well so the lumber prices and returns to the mill were another status quo for the week. March Futures were trading about a $31 premium using my math to cash sales. So something had or has to give. The Premium was more than likely the issue caused by the SLA  . Feb 20th ish , seems to also be the day we know more. We are hearing a possible 30 percent duty. Mills are starting to drop as well , meaning they have quit sending lumber across the border , ie primary producers like Aspen Planers in Merritt , BC and also most Cdn wholesalers are stopping being the exporter of record as well.  There is too much uncertainty and the cost is too great. So what does this mean ? Higher prices of course ! So , a couple of recommendations for you gamblers out there , also there is and has not been an opportunity like this for quite some time. First , the market is the market and we will see Tembec benefit in the short term until the SLA has been rectified , meaning higher returns to the mill. Watch Monday , we should start to see the Futures start to drive the market even more . Monday should be the start of the Rogers roll where they get out of their current position to go long the next contract. So I don't mean for anyone to sell March even though there will be some downward pressure as they start to get out of March and go long May. So you gamblers out there I recommend going long May. With these numbers going up it should look after the cost of the duty ! And again it will be a status quo regarding return to the mills. Personally I went long on product shipped to the U.S. and as we get closer to spring and as in every other year I should make a penny or two selling on the spring demand. Fantastic week all , let's keep her going . Again not to pump May futures , but watch Monday , Tuesday and part of Wednesday. Currently at $336.40. If this increases $15-$20 the duty costs to mills like Tembec will be absorbed in the marketplace . Until next week . Lash