OTCPK:TMBMF - Post by User
Post by
dosperroson Feb 01, 2017 8:43pm
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Post# 25786767
Valuation. Case 2b.
Valuation. Case 2b. Case 2b: Moderate. We see a modest 6.0 multiple (i.e. the RBC target) that grows to 8.0. E.g. that of a "good" firm, but still below the 9.0 sector average.
| | year 0 | year 1 | year 2 | year 3 | year 4 | year 5 |
| | Feb. 2017 | Jan 2018 | Jan 2019 | Jan 2020 | Jan 2021 | Jan 2022 |
| | | | | | | |
| EBITDA ($M) | $170 | $190 | $210 | $230 | $250 | $270 |
| EBITDA Valuation Multiple | 6.00 | 6.50 | 7.00 | 7.50 | 7.75 | 8.00 |
| Implied Enterprise Value ($M) | $1,020 | $1,235 | $1,470 | $1,725 | $1,938 | $2,160 |
| Debt ($M) | $650 | $550 | $450 | $350 | $250 | $150 |
| Implied Equity Value | $370 | $685 | $1,020 | $1,375 | $1,688 | $2,010 |
| | | | | | | |
| Implied Share Price | $3.70 | $6.85 | $10.20 | $13.75 | $16.88 | $20.10 |
| Implied Investment Gain from 2.95 | 23% | 128% | 240% | 358% | 463% | 570% |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 64% | 45% | 31% | 20% | 13% | 7% |