RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:OK, we have a couple of $2 targetsBSdetector. Commodity columnists need to write about something. Glencore's 500,000 tons of shuttered zinc production supposedly hanging over the zinc market like the sword of Damocles makes for good copy. But that's all it is, good copy.
From 2012 thru 2016 4 of the world's 11 largest zinc mines closed for good. The 500,000 tons of shut-down Glencore production represent the output of ONE of the four shuttered mines. Ivan Glasenburg said recently that the 500,000 tons will be restored piecemiel--not all at once--so as to not drive down zinc.
Doubtless when Glencore does announce the restoration of some, not all, of the 500,000 tons there will be a negative reaction as if the whole whack was coming back that day--to which i say 'so what'. The zinc supply deficit will remain intact. With reference to the other 3 shuttered mines their production is not being replaced. There's just not a whole lot out there coming online any time soon.
The total sovereign debt of all governments worldwide is 150 trillion. China's share is 30, America's is 20. I worry about this.
Donald Trump is...surreal. However Ronald Reagan was every bit as surreal in his day and the world was as astonished at his elevation to the presidency as it is to Trump. Trump's economic policy is straight from the Reagan playbook. Every advantage possible is given to the wealthy in the expectation that their chosen vehicle of wealth creation, the multinational corporation, will prosper and the benefits will 'trickle down' to the 99 percent. It doesn't work. The last 37 years have proven that and so, naturally, a minority of American voters have selected a president to continue the implementation of a time-tested economic policy guaranteed to fail!
I digress. The macro outlook is what it is. Trevali and zinc reflect the micro perspective--an investment in a sector of the marketplace currently thriving.
When Q1 earnings are out in the second week of May they will reflect a zinc price that should at least average $1.25 or more. We will be rewarded.