RE:Valuation and time framesI was fiddling around with some numbers just so I could justify the risk to myself to hold a speculative stock and came up with these. ACB said that they expect to be able to produce 100k KG of bud once they have there 800k sq feet facilities up and running. By that time. Not counting anything from the Goldman group. Just maximizing the Hershey factory. They will be in the ballpark of 900k sq feet. But I did the math based on 800k sq feet and I'm not doing it again so let's go with that. If 800k produces 100k KG of bud then : 100,000 x 2.2 ( pound ) x 16 ( ounces ) x 27 ( grams ) = 95,040,000 grams. Then multiply that by the average cost per gram which is around $7.50 = $712,800,000 per year with 800k sq feet. If they recreational market is estimated at the low end of 5 billion, and WEED wants to take 50% of the market. They need to increase there growing production space by 3.2 million sq feet. That would then give them an annual revenue of approx. $2,851,200,000 dollars. Now. Based on current market value is out to lunch as we all know. Most businesses are valued at approx. 20-25x revenue. When they achieve this type of revenue, there market cap at the low end of 20x revenue, would be approx $57 Billion dollars. Now. Divide that by the current amount of outstanding shares which I believe is 160 million, gives you a stock price of $356. We all know big investment companies and big banks aren't really invested atm as its too speculative. What's the saying? Buy on fear. Yes. It's speculative right now. I get it. If recreational doesn't happen in 2017/2018 people might be holding the bag for awhile till the medical market catches up. But it will eventually. That's not including revenue from Brazil or Germany as those are more speculative then I wanna go threw. Either way a investment today of just $5000 has very good odds to make someone $169,100 in less then 5 years. I like those numbers.
starsearcher40 wrote: Bob, I agree with most of your timeframes, and dollar values. To recap, you suggest $15 by April. $18 to 23$ by July, and $23 to $30 by Christmas. There are SO many positives here, it's hard to know where to start, and I honestly don't know that there will be a dip to $25 some time after that. To the contrary, the stock may still be very much undervalued even at that point. Real profits, expanding facilities, expanding product lines, and world-wide sales will all be potent driving forces to the stock. Furthermore, I only see this company making real strides to meet upcoming demand, and with that, even they have a lot of additional capacity to build.
Tomorrow will be interesting. I think we are seeing the very beginning of an extended run. There will be those wanting to buy, and try and cheap out for a few pennies looking for a dip. Personally, I don't think it will be there tomorrow, and people will then be caught having to chase the stock or risk missing the much more subbstantial gain.
The short position also remains in jeopardy. I think they've totally understimated the timing of the return of strength to the stock, which will now force them to cover when they thought they were otherwise "safe". With those who look to take a long position, and the need for covering the short, there could be a potent updraft tomorrow morning.
Truly, these intraday moves are interesting, but go back to the initial projections that are quite reasonable. $15 in the next 12 weeks? That is close to a 30% gain from current levels. $20ish in the next 24 weeks? That's somewhere close to a 100% gain from current levels. And those gains are acheiveable without doing ANYTHING. No moment to moment moves. No sweating the intraday moves. Sit back. Relax. WIN.
That does sound extremely tempting. Therei's not many stocks out there at all that have that kind of potential. If you're here, in WEED, you've found one. Enjoy.