Donkey2016 wrote: Respectfully, I disagree with this. You are assuming the ole, execute + boost fundamentals, and the market will take care of the rest playbook will work. There are a few issues here though (and as anyone will tell you - i'm long). Here is what I think:
1) share price remains an integral part of the M&A strategy. it also remains a key deal point in case they were going to do a reverse merger, etc.
2) this is not a private company and you have a big-time fiduciary duty to your shareholders. telling folks to chill and wait a few years is not ok and damages the ability for the company to get a proper multiple b/c mgmt credibility as far as interacting with investors is low.
3) to that point on #2, these guys still do not "get it" as far as communicating with investors. they consistently do 'small ball' stuff like pulling a Jan investor presentation from their website (that reiterated the guide - basically told you that 4Q was in the bag - why do this?!?). They have a consultant + 2 folks (with no public stock backgrounds) running IR. And it is still terrible. if you are consistent in your messaging and signal that this is how you will roll and stick to it - this is far better. Otherwise, they create their own uncertainty.
4) At some point, they need to demonstrate that the bears were A) wrong on Concertis (i.e. get a contract and don't have other distracting initiatives publicized unless you have something in hand - this is a sales/publicity thing) & B) wrong that they are buying sales via M&A and marketing (i.e. organically they are growing, but we don't have a great idea of what the cost of acquiistion looks like - i.e. start a dashboard to give us an idea of what CAC is trending at) = at some point we need to get a taste of what normalized profitability looks like on this current sales base.
I have an issue with bears that try to push the mgmt credibility/ethics issue (again, mgmt owns way too much stock and I don't think mgmt wants to go to jail - greed and fear are two logical emotions). That said, the bears do have a point that these guys need to show a path to profitability + fix the lumpiness of cash flows is 100% valid. I know the argument, "well AMZN also was growing sales and failed to be profitable early on..." , but these are ASC's...and HLTH ain't AMZN. Simply put, institutional HC investors are not willing to underwrite the AMZN narrative.
On a high note, 2017 has begun and its another chance to get things right! :) Giddy up!
Mickey2 wrote: no 2016 guidance. No 2017 guidance. Announce an acquistion and it will close when they are damn ready to close it. Love it. Roll up your sleeve and lets get to work. So many more mom and pops surgery/medical facilities to buy/amass and integrate. Buy the run down ones. Fix 'er up 'er renovate and voila, a new facility to run. More patients, more doctors. This thing will feed on itself.
Possibly $1 billion in revenue in 3 yrs from now.