Yahoo Chat - FYIPeter W wrote about TRVN...
Be patient. TRVN clinical study is complete. Samples must be analyzed by GLP, data plotted and concentration-time profiles and pharmacologic effect versus time profiles fit for each patient, each group and then statistical analysis of the data carried out. Sorry, you don't do that overnight. It takes time. There was clearly no serious adverse effects that ever led to a clinical hold, so that is good. The phase II results indicate the drug ought to have no problem meeting its primary objective and there is good reason to believe it will meet its secondary objectives also. Yes, anything could happen, but that seems less probable than a decent phase III outcome.
Meanwhile, investors may be forgetting why this stock is a possible huge winner. Biased ligands are a very, very hot new research area, and TRVN is first out the door with a proof of concept example. Early evidence shows their drug works better than morphine with fewer side effects as "predicted" based on its mechanism of drug action. The chemical structure of oliceridine is different from current opioids and narcotic drugs that act on the opioid receptor already on the market, suggesting new variations on the structure and new types like this drug will follow. The drug need not be a huge blockbuster out the door. Look at present market valuations of TRVN, they are less than $1 billion in a market space where opioid acting drugs generate billions/yr. The reveal for phase III results next month or early April at the latest should expand the phase II study results and drive the price up further. In the fall, when the company files for an NDA, expect the price to rise further. The largest increase will come, because TRVN is a single drug company and a major target for large pharma to buy out either just after NDA filing or after FDA approval.
Big Pharma looks for the company that will add value to their pipeline and expertise to their product development. TRVN does both. Its research into biased ligands is a hot area of research with huge potential for multiple areas of drug development. Their first drug is just the tip of the iceberg, because IV opioid therapy is the small part of pain therapy. The drug in phase II for oral therapy is an even bigger prospect if Oliceridine works, because oral pain killers have a market in the tens of billions of dollars/yr. Thus, whatever the price of TRVN by this fall, expect it to double after they are bought out by a larger pharma company.
Why would TRVN sell out? Because hiring its own sales force to sell a single drug doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Yes, they could slowly develop their own products based on this new technology, but as their first failure shows, small drug development is risky, with a low percent success rate. Their best hope is selling out while the selling is good, instead of attempting to become an independent company with its own line. I am sure their CEO and key administrators realize this as well.
In short, TRVN could easily triple or even quadruple from its present value in the span of one year. It at least has all the hallmarks of a small biotech ripe for acquiring by a larger company once it proves itself. I expect the proof within another month or two, and then watch out, or better yet, hang on for the ride.