Estimate UpdateI've updated my estimates. Obviously a lot more thinking/calculation behind this than just the numbers that appear below.
I calculate an ending debt balance of $55 million by the end of 2017 (which assumes the convertibles are repaid in cash). With that thinking (and depending on what happens with debentures) we could could one more small tuck in before the end of 2017.
Going to be interest to see how the $6 million to $7 million of cost savings will flow through the P&L.
| | Q4/16 | 2016 | Q1/17 | Q2/17 | Q3/17 | Q4/17 | 2017 | 2018 |
| | | | | | | | | |
| Revenue | $72.9 | $283.1 | $71.8 | $76.4 | $74.6 | $79.4 | $302.2 | $296.2 |
| Growth y/y | (10.0%) | (7.1%) | (3.8%) | 9.5% | 13.3% | 8.9% | 6.7% | (2.0%) |
| | | | | | | | | |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $6.0 | $15.6 | $4.4 | $5.6 | $4.8 | $7.8 | $22.6 | $24.6 |
| EBITDA Margin % | 8.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 8.3% |
| | | | | | | | | |
| EPS | $0.24 | $0.01 | $0.13 | $0.19 | $0.14 | $0.31 | $0.77 | $0.87 |
| FCF | $0.38 | $0.62 | $0.27 | $0.20 | $0.15 | $0.17 | $0.78 | $1.11 |