RE:RE:RE:from Lundin's conference call.aaaaaargh wrote: ccrfmac wrote: If any company is seriously thinking taken TV out, then it must be rather soon, I guess it will be in the following 3 -5 months (after Q1 numbers). Santander is derisked, doing well, about to increase resources and to double production. Caribou is almost derisked, with room for improving recoveries and optimizing production. Zinc prices are up and they will not stay that for very long. Debt is still high but if zinc prices are going up, this shouldn't be a problem at all (but if zinc prices are not going higher, why anyone bother to take out TV? I don't see a reason). As time passes by, TV numbers will get only better, price share higher so the buyout will be more and more expensive. If there is a move, it will be in the coming months. I don't see a reason for waiting too much. Any thoughts?
Agree with alot of this. I would also speculate that TV has already been approached multiple times by multiple companies, but refused takeover offers. Although offers provide a large short term gain for shareholders, I really think that we are currently best served by TV standing on its own. If zinc keeps rising, we are going to see much bigger gains over the medium term.
Agree with Aaaaargh. Generally, getting taken out costs investors capital appreciation in the long run but in the short run gives them a score.
So, believing as i do in zinc and in Trevali for the long term, my rational side thinks a buyout costs me money. However I do have certain fears which have me increasingly inclined to think a takeout would be just what the Dr. ordered.
Fears such as...1. The bull market in stocks is getting long in the tooth and a correction wouldn't be much of a surprise. 2. The zinc bull market may or may not be able to overcome that correction. I've seen studies that supposedly demonstrate that commodities uncouple from the stock market during corrections and go their own way two out of three times . I want to believe this but Trevali is a stock first--even if zinc holds up in a correction Trevali will probably go down. 3. Sooner or later Donald Trump will instigate some kind of a trade/tariff/tax conflict with China creating a massive amount of uncertainty extra to what we're already dealing with daily in this Trumpian era. All markets, except gold, hate uncertainty.
So if the buyout comes it would relieve me of dealing with my fears. I'd hunker down with the cash and wait for my next good idea. What a rosy scenario! Notice the assumption i am making. I'm assuming there are before us two positive options which are 1. A buyout at a nice premium, or 2. No buyout but instead long term capital appreciation. Neither of these have to happen. A market correction could combine with some Trump stupdity (or other catalyst) to kill zinc and Trevali before either of the two positives could take place.
Cheers.