opinion on NG that wasn't very convincing theory Mayor, what's with the question mark ?
Anyways here's my theory on future direction.
The great lakes ice pack is very low and will lead to higher summer temperatures but a longer wetter cool period for the north east states in the spring.
The lower eastern states will likely see a hotter summer.
La Nina / El Nino still in the blackout period of predictability so no visiblity for next winter demand yet. Therefore the utilities will still be slow to inject in a withdrawl season period. Why buy and store the stuff when well head supplies and current storage supplies are adeqaute to the cities demands.
The price has already dropped significantly and EIA estimates storage will still draw down to 1944 by April. This is way lower ending storage than 2016 April when it ended at 2400.
The Trump can rant about coal is coming back all he wants to get appalachian and dakota votes, but utilities are already happy using NG and will not go back for economic reasons.
With a warm summer NG will likely turn around this week, since powerburn will likely rise over last summer demand and compete with storage injection demand all summer.
If El Nino returns, an unusual senario, but if it does, then winter 2017-2018 will have high domestic heating demand.
I will say that traders should start considering summer demand when judging their trade.