RE:RE:RE:RE:Great post from Tada ... GV: I think there is a potential calculation to be made here. If someone can come up with a reliable estimate of the ratio between 5 point MACE events and 3 point MACE events, then you can roughly convert the 129 first events into 3 point MACE events. After that, you'd need to come up with a way to estimate the number that might be eliminated through the adjudication process. I would think that that might be a low number for 3 point MACE events but would be larger for 5 point MACE events, since there is more judgment involved in 5 point MACE determinations (hence it is less favored and seen as less reliable).
The above would get one to a rough estimate I think of where we are at reletive to the 125 events needed for the futility analysis.
My guess is that the August estimate is the estimate for when the analysis will be released. They will probably reach 125 before that and then will need some time to calculate the information.
Since they are hinting that they might be able to get there sooner than August, I would venture a guess that we are getting closer to those 125 events than we might otherwise have guessed.