RE:Just for fun...a $500 million USD offerLed, great analysis...and sensible. Thanks.
But, for me I am in such a different sphere on both companies that while your numbers seem reasonable and sensible to a rational person I do not believe for a second that Eastern, Hepalink, NGN Capital, Don, CD Ventures, Dr Wong and Wayne Chiu would ever consider anything so low for even one of the other 7 near in RVX compounds.
My opinion, and that is all it is, is that with a compnay like Astra-Zeneca losing it's Crestor patents in various countries and with the rvx-208 (apabetalone) + Crestor (rosuvastatin) patent through 2029 if I recall correctly, AZ and their competitors will be watching very closely. If the post hocs are replicated in BETonMACE phase lll there are billions to be made on apabetalone alone, none the less on any number of the 2500 (or 1500) compounds they have in the RVX stable.
They also have that huge proprietary blood bank to marhet to other scientists and biotechs.
Add to that the science in the discovery of the MOA of apabetalone on not just MACE, but CKD, Alzheimers (to be tested), diabetes mellitus, FSHD muscular dystrophy, retinitus pigmentosis, etc that is already occuring and I think BP must be watching.
I think we know that Dr Wong has a strong relationship with Ken Dart at Eastern. Forget the line of credit. Don sure is not worried and he said the restructuring of royalties was to insure the employees that have worked for 16 years on these projects will be rewarded accordingly.
So for me my comparison for apabetalone is more like the enzalutimide deal with Pfizer ($14 billion USD for 50%). Not only that, apabetalone has a far bigger market.
Anyway, just a POV.
Cheers and thanks for your perspectives.
Toinv