RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:BEAR-Re News ReleaseThanks Bear. This helps many of us understand.
I do realize that statistical significance must be achieved and the smaller p value the higher the probability that the observations were not just a random event but, in fact, a real effect of the drug.
I think I had become fixated on absolute risk reduction as per the post hoc subgroup of patients with CVD, DM and low HDL where the RRR was 77% after 210 days and the absolute risk reduction was 16% points (21% control MACE - 5% apabetalone treated MACE) and I can't remember the p value but it was significant (i.e. p<0.05).
So subsequently reading about other drugs where I would see something like control = 2% and test = 1.5% so RRR = 25% and let's say p<0.01 (based on a large sample size). Then the absoute risk reduction was 0.5%. So the result is highly significant but the absolute impact
seems small. And yet can have a dramatic impact to the drug company.
So I understand how the scientific community can interprete success because of a highly significant p value i.e. the drug had a real impact.
I just want to feel comfortable that the investment community will interprete findings dramatically below 30% RRR even if the p=0.001 for example...that is, if the investment community is aware of and has expectations of the 30% RRR used to power the experiment. If 30% is the investment community's reference point and apabetalone hits 5% RRR with p<0.001 it may be a scientific success and an investmment failure.
From what I saw with ASSURE the investment community is binary (succeeded or failed) but the scientific community is sophisticated and understands the extreme complexities of the science.
I think my biggest concern is on the communications side to the investment community;
- Who controls the release of information?
- What form does this communications take in terms of content?
- How are investors being conditioned currently in terms of how they will interprete success or failure. Your Jardiance example gives me reassurance.
And this raises a challenge for Sarah and Mr Paradis (sorry I can't remember his first name) to begin to set the stage for "the end game" communications.
Oh boy, this time I have really rambled...apologies.
Bear I thank you so much for your insights, scientific knowledge and hard work in enlightening me and many of us I am sure.
Things are sure looking good.
GLTA
Toinv