RE:Interview with Adrian Adams Don't listen to this dog and pony show. After wiping out Tribute shareholders, Mr. Goldman sold half his stake in Aralez just recently, so his actions don't reflect the 'confidence' he has in this company. This is the final pump and dump for Mr. Goldman before he exits his position completely. Harris, Langille, Goldman etc took a profitable company with growing sales and wiped out its shareholders, so look at the track record before you believe anything he says. The most valuable information regarding this "investment", however, is in what is NOT being said:
1. Mr. Goldman sold (at least) half his stake in recent weeks. I'm curious as to why he doesn't mention this. Actually, I'm not. I know the answer.
2. ARLZ's decision not to break out sales by product is by design as they don't want investors to have the transparency they need to make informed investing decisions. They think that if they just pool all the money up, all of the weak spots can be filled in by the strong - but this plan kind of backfired because everything is a weak spot with the exception, I'm sure, of Cambia sales which are probably still growing. They just don't want anymore ex-Tribute shareholders running around yelling 'I told you so' - which we did.
3. Management's continued focus on Zontivity is a big red flag that Yosprala is probably in the process of failing. The big bet didn't pay off, so now the focus is being shifted to other products so that the company can stop being viewed as a one trick pony - which it is - and that pony has a broken leg.
4. Management's failure to discuss the cost to re-launch Zontivity should come as another massive red flag. In the event Yosprala actually makes some money, prepare to see those gains possibly wiped out by another failed launch. This product was dumped onto ARLZ for a reason. What do you think is more likely? That Merck, who invested all that time and money into that product, simply let it go because of a poor initial implementation, or that the product really is worthless?
5. You can forget about ARLZ's line of credit getting refinanced at anything other than higher interest rates - which, if it is tied to American Prime - is only going to go higher.
6. "We believe we have sufficient capital to run the business and continue through 2017 without needing to raise additional capital."
You believe? You believe? It's almost April, and you don't know? Red flag number #456
7. If the assertion that PPI lead to long term kidney damage (https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/heartburn-drugs-kidney-damage-1.3994789) gains traction, say goodbye to whatever Yosprala sales exist.
8. Yosprala uptake rates aren't nearly what management had estimated. And the fact they were off by so much, gives you a good indication as to competence. Same goes for their revenue forecasts. They might as well be giving revenue estimates of "Between one dollar and a hundred billion, cause we really don't have a clue."
9. ARLZ will continue to feel the wrath of the demise of Valeant/Concordia until it either turns a profit, or at least gets pointed in the right direction, and neither seems likely anytime soon. Valeant/Concordia will continue their slow descent into bankruptcy and take every rollup down with it.
10. Any new deal ARLZ announces will not be viewed favourably by investors, no matter what it is, especially any financed by debt - which it will have to be.
11. Forget about any fantasies of a buyout - with Yosprala floundering, their one big asset is looking less and less like an asset every day.
12. Forget about any kind of European licensing deal with a big up front payment. No company in their right mind will touch this now until numbers improve significantly - which might never happen - so that $$ is out the window - and because ARLZ won't be able to wait that long before the European market is available, they'll be forced to take whatever garbage offer someone gives them just to get the exposure.
13. ARLZ will eventually get discounted down to cash, about $0.79/share as of today. Next quarter will be less.