RE:RE:$14.00 SEEMS like IMPOSSIBLE until fallERTguy wrote: DeltaVega wrote: EOM
It seems we are at the mercy of the sector trend which is pretty much consistent with AC's moves at least for now. I'm expecting interest in the stock to increase however over the next 2 months. We have Q1 to look forward to and although this is traditionally a weak quarter the stock price has moved upward on this Q for the last 3 years straight. That combined with investor day coming up should trigger moves similar to the ones we saw in 2015 leading up to the event IMO. Cheers
I was going to dispute your comment re sector trend because it seems like AC is lagging (it certainly did today), but then I plotted a comparison of AC versus a few other airlines (using Yahoo) and lo and behold it generally is falling right in the middle of the general trend (over the past year). Since 2012, it has actually blown away the competition (but that's not a fair comparison because AC was coming out of restructuring). Then I looked at the annual ebbs and flows of AC. In 2014 and 2016, February-March were certainly down months but 2015 this was not the case (nor so in 2013). Also, with other airlines, there doesn't seem to be a seasonal swing (as far as stock price goes) at all. So I wouldn't count too much on seasonality. Last comment, AC has got the highest beta of all the major airlines (from $2 in 2013 to $9 in 2014; back down to $6 in 2014 to $13 in 2015...etc.) so really, this could go anywhere. I'm holding because I believe that if the market gets skittish, this will act a bit like a utility (ie. a certain amount of guaranteed income no matter what - ie. people will continue to use the major airlines; and money will flow to more secure trades like stable airlines for example) and if the market continues on a tear, then based on the awesome fundamentals (only to get better if AC pays down some debt) then this will also go up (probably even faster than in the above case). In other words, no matter what, I see this stock's trajectory as generally upward this year (nope I'm not a sponsor or advertiser). Hope I'm not "projecting" my hopes onto this stock, but those are my thoughts of the day.... thanks for reading this overtly long spiel!