Old API Wind-down Ltd - Ordinary Shares ARLZQ

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[Floridas2000]

kuatolives wrote: Anybody still long here? Or have the lights gone out?

The worst place to be in for a trader is to have a stock that's either a) a falling knife or b) a rocket ship.   I hate them both because you want to be out of that stock before it falls and in that stock before it takes off.  Right now it's a falling knife.  Should the stock be hammered, absolutely.  Yosprala is not hitting the numbers they should.  They miscalculated it's acceptance by doctors and overstaffed their sales team.  They are now switching away from the drug that was supposed to drive the company forward and putting their bets on Zontivity.  They ignored TRX stable of drugs that if they grew they would be in a better position and would have to spend less money to build that base.  Vimovo is actually not doing bad.  

Is it now oversold?  Absolutely.  It should not be the same value as TRX, not with the addition of assets.  Will it go to $1 - I doubt it unless there is a ton of emotion selling.  Adams made a mistake in his business plan so he revised.  Similar to when oil companies had to cut their dividends and reduce expenditures when oil prices trended down.  But ARLZ is not CXR or Valeant, that's emotion talking in the middle of a falling knife.  What Adams is really doing is acting on the recommendations by their key shareholders that he met a few weeks ago.  I had a multi-bagger and sold half so my remaining shares are bonuses but I won't sell because I want to see how Adams does now.  Since their portfolio is now dirt cheap, a better run pharma might take this time to but ARLZ.  With a proper refocus on drugs I would make my money back in a year.

I would see longs going if they had one drug and that drug failed.  But ARLZ has a portfolio of drugs and one drug is underperforming.  Unfortunately it's the drug they've hyped for the past few years.  This is not a buy, no way.  But I hate selling when the stock is a falling knife unless the stock is a complete disaster.