GREY:ALXDF - Post by User
Comment by
goldopportunityon Apr 16, 2017 5:02pm
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Post# 26125818
RE:RE:Fwiw......
RE:RE:Fwiw......Thanks for your replay currower -- there is a convergence of disruptive events happening in the next little while.
You mention:
1. the french presidential election -- the first round is on the 23rd. If no one wins 50% of the vote then a run-off between the top 2 candidates will be held on may 7. I agree that le pen could win next sunday, but not a majority vote. As for the run-off, I suspect the ptb will rig it so that le pen won't win (damm what the people want!). There's too much at stake: if france were to go to le pen it would essentially be the end of the eu as we know it, and the collapse of the euro imo.
2. Yes, I know what you mean about the italian banks and greek situation. They strengthen my argument that the eu ptb will resort to any means to make sure that le pen doesn't win.
3. Yes, I could very well see hezbollah lobbing artillery shells into israel, but not russian rockets.
4. wouldn't surprise me if Iran is also helping NK with their nuclear program -- thanks Obama
5. the usd should strengthen early this week, and climb a tad over the 50dma to maybe 101, but then begin to quickly lose steam. I suspect the greenback will easily close below 100 come friday. Fyi, this week the euro looks like it will strengthen against the dollar -- with a possible sell-on-the-news of next sunday's election results.
6. the 10-year yield still has up gaps to fill around 2.12 and 1.87. I have no doubt they will both be filled (and then some) in q2. Later this quarter, though, I'm expecting interest rates to actually rise above the arbitrary 2.62 line in the sand -- not because of optimism, but because of the perception that the gov't will have problems servicing its debt. Hence higher interest rates to compensate. Gold will actually thrust higher in this environment.
Of course, nothing is written in stone. I always adapt to the markets. But any projections I give are as I see things presently. So we'll see what happens. Jmvho.
goldopp