Impressions ..I get the impression the most visible minority of TMM stockholders are a whiny bunch or all (paid by) shorts.
New options for new managment, big deal - part of compensation package to be added to the 401M fully diluted OS. Nothing compared to the value here.
Valuation just based on sales and earnings w/o AP
- 401M shares, $31.74M E, $123.87M S
- $0.39/sh $156.39M mcap: P/S 1.23, P/E 4.93
- $0.45/sh $180.45M mcap: P/S 1.46, P/E 5.68
- P/E 10: $317.40M mcap: $0.79/sh
- P/E 20: $634.80M mcap: $1.58/sh
- avg P/E > 40 like MUX, GORO !!!
- AP mine will add about CAD 0.20/sh right now: CAD 0.75
and w/ AP PFS/DFS its multiple should be 1x for CAD 1.22.
Traditionally this is traded at CAD 0.62 at these gold levels,
but ppl freak out now b/c of the RS, which is actually favorable,
allowing tutes to buy into this growing miner. Then we hear the scare of
further dilution. First CEO said in Zurich debt financing is the way to go
and secondly that decision will be made in 2Q18 after a bunch of
strong catalysts coming up - see below.
Bottom line, thx for the cheap shares at todays bottom,
but some really need to grow a pair :)
Catalysts
- 2017-04 AP Resource Modelling/Min Planning
- 2017-04 AP Capital/Operating Cost Est
- 2017-05-11 1Q17 Results
- 2017-05-12 AGM (Name change and RS vote, RS needs 2/3 majority)
- 2017-Q2 SF Revitalization Plan
- 2017-06 AP PFS
- 2017-Q4 AP Permitting & Financing
- 2018-Q1 AP DFS
- 2018-Q2 AP Target Investment Decision
Operations
- SFO: 2016 AISC $ 853/oz, 100k oz, EPS $0.10/sh
2017 AISC ~$1000/oz, ~75k oz
2018 - 2023 enhance mine life plan around June 2Q17
- recapitalize mine via debt or AP profits
- cont development, pits ~1M oz
- stripping
- AISC "less than $800 per ounce" and 120k oz annual production for 6 years
starting in 2018
- AP
- Capital Costs $120M
- Head Grade 2.24 g/t gold, 6.89 g/t silver
- Recovery 75% gold, 50% silver
- Life of Mine 8.2 years
- After Trax @ $1200/oz NPV 5% $248M, IRR 46%
- Total AISC $479/oz
- $10M investment feasibility study
- raising debt for financing construction
- $120M costs for construction
- MIA given 2017-04
- Permitting 2017, no challenges
- Security: Community relations remove threats