OTCPK:TMBMF - Post by User
Post by
dosperroson Apr 28, 2017 3:20pm
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Post# 26180886
Did anyone follow the SC antidumping ruling with China?
Did anyone follow the SC antidumping ruling with China?This is good, clearly, but I'm not sure what the impact will be. Or even what the outcome is (the duty lifted?)
If we knew the % of SC volume moved to China, and the degree to which the ~20% duty will be lifted, we'd have an indication of impact on earnings.
Page 50 of the 2016 annual report does say this:
. China has also imposed antidumping duties on certain viscose grade pulp imports. As a result, the Company has reduced shipments of these grades into China and redirected the volumes into other markets
Looks like $43M in SC and $142 in pulp went there in '16. So, say the '17 market and beyond is $43M in SC. It implies a pure EBITDA hit of 20% of that, or abot $10M a year. That's worth between 50cent and 90cents a share currently depending on the muliple.
So, perhaps this means we shoulda hit $3.70 today :/ Good thing this mega consolidation continutes.... it'll rocket up come Tuesday!!