RE:IceBEARrinm99 wrote: In the conference call of Borregaard, they annouced the completion of the plant and 30000 tones of volume for mid 2018. I hope that next quarter the analysts will start asking questions on the potentiel effect for TMB instead of lumbers questions were we have plenty of information by the news feed.
Context is that's not a lot of volume -- aboutt 1/6 of TMB's capacity, asusming they so 200k a year. Adding new facilities is less critical given it's a Euro firm as I belive and most of the capacity logically will be absorbed there. Whatever makes its way accross the Atlantic will be absorbed in the 4% CAGR of the SC market.
E.g., as sloppy research, what's TMB in North America for SC? Something like 20% or 30%? Call it 25%, and say that based off TMB's 200,000 tons a year, the implied market size is 800,000. So these jokers, the Boogieman if you will, are fixing to add 30k to an 800k market that's growing at 4% per year? That means it's absorbed in just under one year.
The FP's journalism related to TMB is brutal. Sensationalistic drivel for the most part "DOWNGRADED ON THE ICEBEAR" sort of thing. I wouldn't expect them to offer any insight. Or the "Canadian Warren Buffett" peice that quoted some dude claiming they were building new greenfeild mills. Again, just brutal.
The ofher consideration with respect to margins is cost reduction / economies of scale. This is more the recent play at TMB given the now first quartile cost strucuture. I'm not worred.