RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Kumbaya.......BigD
Go over to Agora and read BDAZs posts about various trials that have passed their futility stage and
then failed shortly after. You will be sobered immediately.
I agree with you. This remains
extremely high risk. That is one reason why I posted the question asking posters POV regarding pre vs post futility investment strategy. If apabetalone fails futility the stock is
dead. We have absolutely
no reliable data on 3 point MACE from the post hocs. Apebetalone may be safe. It may have a great 5 point MACE score and it may fail 3 point MACE. And after death it or one of it's cousins could emerge for dementia, MD, CKD, etc.
Then the stock is
dead but the IP will live on. Only a few months and we'll know.
If apabetalone passes futility then we have a bit of good news but
litte evidence of possible success. Still
extremely high risk but it wasn't killed.
So in my tiny little brain that leads to me to ask about other evidence. In the post hoc analysis we have seen extensive research and understanding of the MOA of apabetalone. They have discovered that it does not act in a singlular manner but it is multi-modal. It impacts impact on the complement cascade(positive impact on the Immune system), reduction in coagulation, reduction in mediators that promote calcium deposition in the vasculature, reductions in mediators that promote inflammation of the vasculature, increased ApoA-I – positive effects on lipid content of HDL, reduced oral glucose absorption & endogenous production. These findings are
statistically significant. However, we do not have much of an idea of what this means from a health POV. We do have a reasonable idea that the reductions in inflammation could be very powerful on many indications including dementia, CVD, CKD, retinal, etc.
Does this mean anything? Well I have
never heard any feedback from any scientific presentations that they have done over the past 4 years. If any readers have then let us know. Woulld it not be essential and valuable to hear the critical opinions from scientists around the world? I think we do know that while momentum is building it is certainly not a steam roller!
We do know that 2 independent scientific groups have researched apabetalone for retinal and MD conditions and thet got positive results (sorry for the repetion).
We also know that scientific interest in epigenetics is growing rapidly.
As I understand it, BDAZ indicated that BETonMACE may be statistically
underpowered for the futility analysis. Remember that ASSURE was under powered statistically for PAV regression AND THE TRIAL
FAILED. - Being underpowered is NOT good!!!
So perhaps you, BigD, should get out while you can...just for your own sanity. Buy some RBC or BCE and relax.
So what happens when apabetalone passes futility? Perhaps
not much. There are no independent analysts posting on this stock. RVX is not even on NASDAQ. Don has apparently no interest in NASDAQ or even promotiong the stock (and that tells us alot). That is not what this company is about!
This company is a little, science based company that may or may not come up with a big idea. They have enough evidence to attract investors like Eastern, Hepalink, NGN, CD Ventures, etc to keep their science moving forward. Perhaps it will be 2030 when they finally have a break through compound. I believe their science will journey on in some form or another.
So BigD, I sense this is a stock that
you should never have been involved in. Why not just sell and be happy? Yes, you may regret it if it is a blockbuster (which is what I am betting on) but at least you can relieve the stress of failure. It will take years my friend so why stress yourself?
BigD get out of it or reduce your position to your personal comfort zone. It may be years.
In the mean time what could happen is?
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Of course I did not fill them in becaiuse it would be repetition and you guys will flame me as you should.
It is a beautiful day in Muskoka and I am going to put a few beers in the canoe and paddle the shore line!
Apologies to all readers. I would not even read this post myself but it did helped me adjust to some sort of reality. Very, very high risk.
BigD, sincerely, take care of yourself and get out of this stock.
Cheers
Toinv