RE:RE:RE:RE:These are big, cumbersome projects that take years gather From time to time the board brings up the past of the company; some of which I can understand. However, new shareholders can purchase a much better positioned, more experienced company with a better pipeline for basically the same $/share as a long-term shareholder. A long-term shareholder can average down or build a position for potentially a better value proposition.
The current infrastructure has been made on the prior shareholder’s equity (sunk costs). A new shareholder, or returning shareholder increasing shares, gets a new (better) value proposition.
A few more observations:
· 99% shareholder approval for board
o This includes ~20% from new shareholders who invested at $6/CAD (+options)
§ i.e. short-term and long-term shareholders seem to be in agreement with the actions taken by the board and direction of the company (overall strategy)
· Growing pipeline, US and North American power plants targeted
o No more of the past trying to develop in 2
nd or 3
rd world countries
o Developing in 1
st world countries with 1
st class partners
o Houston office has the potential, but no pressure, to scale up
· Paris Climate Treaty
o Downside probably priced into stock due to Trump, potentially upside if Trump changes position (unlikely?, unless he needs a distraction)
· Iceland
o Might have positive surprises in 2017 and 2018 after unfavorable 4Q2016 (which the market seemed to care, but not really care about)
· Large corporations and utilities moving into renewable energy at significant rates
o GE, NextEra and Southern Company just to name a few…
· It can take a few years for these projects to come together
o Look at the last few projects Alterra has announced:
§ Other companies have started these projects and then get stuck (i.e. are forced to sell them in order to complete them as they do not have the capital or the partners or the financing sources to complete the project => Alterra does)
§ Alterra should look into purchasing these projects via restricted stock in the future (i.e. no cash required, only minor dilution)
If you create a matrix of power production for Alterra by location, type (solar, wind, etc.), amount, and revenue you can find out some interesting information.
You can expand this information by adding what type of pipeline the company has announced and what you believe (assume) they can add. It is a pretty neat exercise which you might find helpful for generation growth, revenue growth, etc.
You can then take this information to update cash flow and profitability forecasts and models.
One of my predictions at the beginning of the year was to increase the dividend; they mentioned it in the past call. I will stick with it.
It looks like investors had 2 months to invest in AXY sub $5 CAD and sub $4 US. During these months my position has increased, including an increase in position of ~14% since the last shareholder meeting (after a 65% year-over-year from the previous shareholder meeting). If you can look past the sunk costs and focus on future events, investing in sub $4.80 CAD and sub $3.80 US might just lead to long-term capital returns.
Bold Forbes
https://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.axy/alterra-power-corp?postid=25671964 Predictions:
#1 – more than expected pipeline announcements – still a possibility
#2 – increase in dividend – mentioned last conference call
#3 – board turnover – totally wrong; shareholders love company completely (I thought there was a chance additional members would be added or the new shareholder may signal that a they were not satisfied with a significant decline in the share price; apparently our new shareholders are more or as patient as our long-term shareholders)
#4 – form non-profit or team up with – still time
#5 – continues to win awards for projects – still time
#6 – Alterra creates position for future leadership – the restructuring does this