RE:RE:AEMgoldhunter11 -
You have written an excellent summation of a theoretical situation but that is all it is - theoretical.
We have no hard evidence AEM or G or any deep-pocket major has the slightest inkling of interest in this unfolding catastrophe regardless of whether it makes sense that they might, particularly AEM and for the reasons they gave.
ELD is a stretched, strapped outfit with highly problematical mines in Greece and Turkey. The former is a potential disaster and fighting with the Greek government could conceivably impoverish them to the point they could not buy a pot to pi** in. As for Turkey, it is highly volatile and moving farther and farther into the east's sphere and away from the west. Edgogan is basically a dictator and if he chooses to snatch what ELD has there, he will. As for Romania and Brazil, ELD's properties there are basically fallow and they also are problematic nations.
So, here we have a "mid-tier producer" in ELD which is cash-poor but not unwilling to dilute the living daylights out of its shares. Less for us. Period.
Hoping AEM or some other white knight is going to bail ICG out of this mess is pure wishful thinking, at least at this point. Meanwhile, we lose through opportunity costs as well as falling share price.
We can hope the white knight will appear but over decades of playing these "ponies" I have not found hope a successful strategy. The facts of what is happening right now to these two outfits tell the story all too clearly. It is highly unusual for the company being acquired to fall this far this fast when it should be showing a premium over ELD.
Facts, not wishes or speculations will clarify the situation but how much more damage will be done by that time could be considerable. A huge rise in the POG could change the water on the beans but when that will happen no one can say.