Twin Butte Energy Ltd TBTEF

RE:Debenture Payout - better than we could have hoped for

[HamSandwich]

mhastings wrote:

There are three possible scenario's for payout.

The most probable, in my view, is ~$62 million, or approximately $0.73 per dollar of par value.  This will happen if the debentures are subordinate to all other unsecured creditors and if the government's tax claims remains disallowed (FTI has denied their claim).

If the government's claim is allowed and we remain subordinate to other unsecured creditors we will get approximately $53million, or approximately $0.62 per dollar of par value.

If the the government's claim remains disallowed and the Ad Hoc's battle for pari passu (i.e. equal ranking to other unsecured creditors) is successful, we will get just under $67 million, or $0.79 per par dollar of par value!

I note, the numbers above are conservative because: (i) FTI has assumed that all $16M of the unsecured claims that they have yet to review will be allowed, and (ii) it assumes there will be no more revenue between now and the ultimate payout date. On this latter point, I note that FTI has $6 million more in cash on hand then they did in Mid-April.  
 

That's pretty awesome. The true upside, although improbable, is above $0.80 on the dollar.  

Please note, the reason why FTI is reporting 72% and 67% payout ratios is because they've included in the debenture holders claims' approximately $7.5 million of accrued interest that we were obviously never going to see as the fulcrum investor.